Category: INO.com Contributors

Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

As expected, Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) reported another great quarter with beats on both the top and bottom lines. EPS and revenue estimates were beaten by $0.05 and $200 million, respectively. Since its earnings release, Visa has set new to all-time highs, currently sitting at ~$100 per share. The Visa Europe acquisition has been a tailwind for the company, translating into phenomenal transaction and volume growth. However, this was expected and beginning with the initial quarter Visa started reporting the fully integrated company these numbers have been fantastic. Visa has been posting great growth across all segments of its enterprise further accentuated by the Visa Europe acquisition. Meanwhile, the company continues to grow its dividends and engage in consistent share repurchases. It’s noteworthy to point out that Visa has been buying back its own stock at near all-time highs as of recent. Visa has continued to be a best in-class large-cap growth stock, however, does this translate into a compelling investment opportunity for a great long-term position? I always felt that Visa was a great long-term holding that offered growth and stability independent of banks and/or interest rates. The fully integrated Visa enterprise in conjunction with major client wins will likely enable sustained and durable growth now and into the future, however, I feel that Visa is overvalued based on the first nine months of revenue from FY2017 and a pullback may be coming. Continue reading "Visa: The Disconnect Between Perceived Growth And Valuation?" →

Copper Eyes $3 Amid Upbeat Chinese Data

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Back in May, I posted an update for copper where I shared my concerns about the possible negative impacts of the cooling Chinese economy. At the same time the technical chart didn’t confirm those concerns and on the contrary, showed a possible upside move for the metal.

In this post, I would like to share some macro economic charts and an update of the technical chart.

Chart 1. Copper Vs China Industrial Production (Monthly)

China Industrial Production vs. Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingeconomics.com

I chose the period of the chart above from the start of 2016 intentionally to highlight the time when the metal began to consolidate after a huge drop down. Continue reading "Copper Eyes $3 Amid Upbeat Chinese Data" →

Analysis Of Saudi Export Reduction For August

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


On July 24th, Saudi energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih, announced that Saudi Arabia would limit its exports to 6.6 million barrels a day (mmbd) in August. He noted that other producers were still exporting larger volumes of oil than their production cuts imply.

“We are not doing this to allow other countries to free ride and undercut the agreement by overproducing,” said Mr. Al-Falih, reflecting a high level of frustration. Observers described Mr. Al-Fahil as “very nervous” over the weekend.

Saudi energy minister Khalid Al-Falih
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih. PHOTO: IGOR RUSSAK/ZUMA PRESS

I believe he sensed or was advised that oil prices may drop precipitously if OPEC only reported continued-high compliance. Last Friday, John Kilduff had said this was a “make or break” meeting, and “that if nothing comes out of this meeting, the cartel and Russia will be punished mightily.” Continue reading "Analysis Of Saudi Export Reduction For August" →

Don't Let The Headlines Fool You

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


Back in 1925 President Calvin Coolidge famously said, “The business of America is business.” Apparently, this is still true even if the current administration more closely resembles the Five Families rather than the worthy successors to Silent Cal.

Even as President Trump’s new communications director is “front-stabbing” his White House colleagues and Republicans in Congress can’t get anything done about health insurance reform except make themselves look foolish – and without any help from the Democrats – the economy seems to roll on regardless. Last week the Commerce Department reported that the American economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter, the first full quarter of Donald Trump’s presidency. That was up sharply from the first quarter’s downwardly revised 1.2% rate and the second strongest rate in the past eight quarters.

That managed to happen thanks to some extent from the hope and anticipation of major health insurance and tax reform, not their actual enactment. Imagine what might happen if our lawmakers actually do what they’re supposed to be doing and those things become reality?

A more pertinent question for this column is: Is that growth rate strong enough to get the Federal Reserve back to raising interest rates again and start its “balance sheet normalization program,” i.e., trimming its $4.5 trillion securities portfolio? Continue reading "Don't Let The Headlines Fool You" →

High-Quality Covered Puts - 78% Win Rate

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Introduction

I’ve written many articles highlighting the advantages options trading and how this technique, when deployed in opportunistic or conservative scenarios on a consistent basis may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk in a meaningful manner. Here, I’d like to focus on leveraging cash to engage in options trading, more specifically selling covered puts. Here, I’d like to cover my approach and results in layman's terms about strategy and empirical outcome with commentary.

In short, I’m committing cash to purchasing shares in the future at an agreed upon price while being paid a premium. Usually, this agreed upon price is significantly higher than it currently trades and when factoring in the premium income, the agreed upon price will be slightly lower than the current price. Put another way; I’m committing cash to buying shares in the future for less than the stock trades today. Therefore, the seller of the option contract (in this case me) believes the price will increase, and the buyer (stock owner) believes the price will fall. The stock owner (buyer) and is purchasing insurance in the event the stock falls (paying for the right to sell the stock at an agreed upon price and date). As the stock appreciates in value and approaches the agreed upon price within the contract time frame the shares will be kept by the owner (buyer), and I keep the premium. If the shares decrease in value, then the shares will be sold to me at the agreed upon price (less the premium). My objective is to leverage cash and generate income without owning the underlying shares of the company via options contracts. Continue reading "High-Quality Covered Puts - 78% Win Rate" →