Historical Bear Market Comparisons

2022 Bear Market

Although there’s not an official bear market definition, those on Wall Street define a bear market as a 20% drop in the broader index. As of late May, the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and S&P 500 have all breached that 20% sell-off threshold. This bear market is largely due to a confluence of the China Covid lockdowns, the Russia/Ukraine war, persistent inflation, and rising rates. All these bear market inputs are eroding companies’ margins and negatively impacting profitability and growth.

Looking at historical bear market comparators, there’s been 14 since World War II. The S&P 500 has pulled back a median of 30% and the selling has lasted a median of 359 days, per Bespoke Investment Group. It’s important to put the median in a statistical context, median translates into half the time the index has fallen more than 30% while half the time the index has remained above the 30% sell-off level. The 2022 bear market is only 136 days in as of March 20th, 2022. Although the median values suggest these markets may have a way to go, the resolution of one or a combination of the macroeconomic issues may be the needed catalyst for the bears to capitulate.

Bear Market Comparison

Markets On Edge

It's been challenging to endure the last five months of indiscriminate and relentless selling across all asset classes. The wealth destruction has been vast and safe haven stocks have been few and far between at this stage of the bear market. The bear has finally mauled Walmart (WMT), Apple (AAPL), and the flight to safety commodity, Gold (GLD) in its path of destruction. Continue reading "Historical Bear Market Comparisons"

As Inflation Signals Cool, Various Markets Get Relief

Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish.

Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706:

bear market

We then covered the technically bearish state of the major indexes, which are clearly trending down on longer time frames. Sentiment is a tool. TA is a tool. Macro fundamentals are another tool. These tools and others should be used together to refine probabilities in the markets. Continue reading "As Inflation Signals Cool, Various Markets Get Relief"

Inflation: Is The Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?

The inflation rate rose 0.2% in April; is the glass half empty or half full?

Today the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) for April 2022. This report is the preferred inflation gauge used by the Federal Reserve as a key component to shape their forward guidance of monetary policy. Continue reading "Inflation: Is The Glass Half Empty Or Half Full?"

And You Thought Gasoline And Diesel Prices Were High

“The following is an excerpt from Tim Snyder’s “Weekly Quick Facts” newsletter. Tim is an accomplished economist with a deep understanding of applied economics in energy. We encourage you to visit Matador Economics and learn more about Tim. While there, you can sign up for his completely free Daily Energy Briefs and Weekly Quick Facts newsletters.”

I was asked last week, after our series on gasoline and diesel prices and how high those prices could go, my thoughts on the price of Natural Gas, and where they could go.

I have been following Natural Gas prices and Natural Gas inventories for years, so I went to my trusty charts and began to piece together a narrative.

Just this year alone, the price of Natural Gas has doubled. We started the year at $3.73 per million cubic feet (MMCF) and closed business yesterday, at $8.796 per MMCF. Here’s that
price chart:

Natural Gas Futures

I also looked at the inventory chart for Natural Gas from the Energy Information Agency. That chart showed me that natural gas inventories are starting to trend toward the lower end of the five-year average. Continue reading "And You Thought Gasoline And Diesel Prices Were High"

Building A Portfolio In A Bear Market

No Place To Hide

A massive amount of portfolio wealth has been destroyed throughout this bear market that continues its carnage that started in January. Except for oil stocks, there hasn't been any place to hide, as the cryptocurrency market, gold, equities, and bonds have all scummed to the mauling of the bear. The current bear market has been brutal, with some individual stocks losing more than 90% of their value, such as Peloton (PTON), Beyond Meat (BYND), Coinbase (COIN), and Zoom Video (ZM). However, even high-quality large-cap companies with growing revenues and durable business models have not been spared and have sold off 30-50%, such as Disney (DIS), Microsoft (MSFT), Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST), and Meta (FB).

During bear markets or an extended period of a market-wide correction, investors have the unique opportunity to purchase heavily discounted stocks at a fraction of the price compared to their peaks. As history indicates, establishing long-term positions during corrections can lead to outsized gains over the intermediate and long term. As the selling pressure abates and the macroeconomic backdrop resolves, building equity stakes in high-quality companies bodes well for investors. The most recent market-wide sell-off is due to a confluence of the China Covid lockdowns, the Russia/Ukraine war, persistent inflation, and rising rates. As these macro issues resolve over time, the markets will regain their footing and appreciate higher. The current market backdrop is the exact scenario where investors should be deploying cash on hand to snap up heavily discounted merchandise.

Cash Is King

Deploying cash into an environment where the selling is relentless and indiscriminate can be a daunting task. However, for any portfolio structure, having cash on hand is essential and in these environments is where this cash should be deployed in equities. This cash position provides investors with flexibility and agility when faced with market corrections. Cash enables investors to be opportunistic and capitalize on stocks that have sold off and have become de-risked. Initiating new positions and dollar cost averaging during these extended periods of weakness are great long-term drivers of portfolio appreciation. Absent any systemic risk; there are a lot of fantastic entry points for many high-quality large cap companies. Investors should not be remiss and capitalize on this buying opportunity because it may not last too long.

Anchoring And Dollar Cost Averaging

Purchasing stocks at the exact bottom is nearly impossible; however, purchasing stocks at attractive valuations in a disciplined manner over time is possible. For example, dollar cost averaging is a great strategy when anchoring down into a position with an initial sum of capital and following through with additional incremental purchases as the stock declines further. The net benefit is reducing the average purchase price per share in a sequential fashion (i.e., reducing cost basis). An example of building out a high-quality portfolio with subsequent dollar cost averaging throughput this market weakness can be seen in Figure 1.

Building A Portfolio In A Bear Market
Figure 1 – Initiating positions in high-quality companies with subsequent dollar cost averaging to lower the average purchase price over time. These long equity trades along with options-based trades can be found via the Trade Notification service

Conclusion

Purchasing stocks at the exact bottom is nearly impossible; however, purchasing stocks at attractive valuations in a disciplined manner over time is possible. During bear markets, investors have the unique opportunity to purchase heavily discounted stocks at a fraction of the price compared to their peaks. As history indicates, establishing long-term positions during corrections can lead to outsized gains over the intermediate and long term. As the selling pressure abates and the macroeconomic backdrop resolves, building equity stakes in high-quality companies bodes well for investors. The current market backdrop is the exact scenario where investors should be deploying cash on hand to snap up heavily discounted merchandise.

Having cash on hand is essential and in this environment is where this cash should be deployed in equities. This cash position provides investors with flexibility and agility when faced with market corrections. Cash enables investors to be opportunistic and capitalize on stocks that have sold off and have become de-risked. Initiating new positions and dollar cost averaging during these extended periods of weakness are great long-term drivers of portfolio appreciation.

Noah Kiedrowski
INO.com Contributor

Disclosure: Stock Options Dad LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) firm specializing in options-based services and education. There are no business relationships with any companies mentioned in this article. This article reflects the opinions of the RIA. Any recommendation contained in this article is subject to change at any time. No recommendation is intended to constitute an entire portfolio. The author encourages all investors to conduct their own research and due diligence prior to investing or taking any actions in options trading. Please feel free to comment and provide feedback; the author values all responses. The author is the founder and Managing Member of Stock Options Dad LLC – A Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) firm www.stockoptionsdad.com defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital and maximizing return on investment. For more engaging, short-duration options-based content, visit Stock Options Dad LLC’s YouTube channel. Please direct all inquires to

in**@st*************.com











. The author holds shares of AAPL, ACN, ADBE, AMD, AMZN, ARKK, AXP, BA, BBY, C, CMG, COST, CRM, DIA, DIS, EW, FB, FDX, FXI, GOOGL, GS, HD, HON, IBB, INTC, IWM, JPM, LULU, MA, MS, MSFT, NKE, NVDA, PYPL, QCOM, QQQ, SBUX, SPY, SQ, TMO, UNH and V.