Powell To The Rescue, Yet Again

Over the past several years, Modern Monetary Theory has become de facto U.S. government economic policy. To refresh your memory, MMT posits that the government can spend as much money as it likes without worrying about how to pay for it because essentially, it owes the money to itself, plus it can simply print more money as needed. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the U.S. has done that mainly through the Federal Reserve, which has seen its balance sheet balloon to $9 trillion as the national debt has swelled to $30 trillion.

The only constraint on government spending, according to MMT, is when inflation gets out of hand, at which time the government should impose tax increases and reestablish equilibrium. There doesn't appear to be any magic number for what constitutes worrisome inflation, but reasonable people surely believe we have already reached that point, which should mean that the time is right to start raising taxes.

Not surprisingly, recent converts to MMT only really like the first part of the theory since it gives the government license to spend freely and not have to worry about the consequences. Now, however, MMT is being put fully to the test; inflation is here.

As we have seen, though, there is absolutely no interest in Washington to raise taxes to fight inflation and pay for out-of-control spending. Instead, we are now beholden to the two people, namely President Biden and Fed chair Jerome Powell, most responsible for creating the inflationary pressures in the first place to stuff the inflationary genie back into the bottle. Can they do it? Continue reading "Powell To The Rescue, Yet Again"

Silver Update: $40 Then $81?

The title of this post is not clickbait; please keep reading until the end to see why silver can hit these levels.

The bullish pattern is shown in the dollar index chart in my December post with a question in the title "Is The Dollar Going To Steal The Santa Claus Rally?" played out as planned to destroy the rally of top metals.

Let us see the updated silver chart below.

Silver Chart

The previous bullish setup for silver has been annihilated by the ongoing strength of the dollar. The price has dropped in another leg down to retest the former valley of $21.43. It has failed to update the minimum price as it stopped right there, and then the price bounced to the upside. Continue reading "Silver Update: $40 Then $81?"

Geopolitics - Sell The Rumor, Buy The News?

Relentless Selling

The old adage is buying the rumor and selling on the news; however, during this recent market correction, it's been the opposite. Selling the rumor and buying the news has prevailed when it comes to interest rate hikes and the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. In both cases, the anticipation of rate hikes has sent the market into a downward tailspin despite the fact the Federal Reserve hasn't put forth any rate hikes. In addition, the anticipation of the Russian/Ukraine conflict boiling over into an invasion by Russia drove the markets further into correction territory.

As a result, the markets entered deep into correction territory. Over a third of the Nasdaq 100 stocks traded off at least 30% or more from their highs, over half of the S&P 500 fell 15% or more while the median biotech stock had sold off by 60% or more. In addition, massive amounts of market capitalization have been eviscerated across the board, with many individual stocks selling off 50% or more throughout this downward spiral.

Per Tom Lee, many factors, including the market's big reversal at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, indicate the markets are now bottoming around these levels. Lee stated that the market's stunning comeback in stocks and a reversal in the Cboe Volatility Index signal that the pain in the market could be coming to an end. The market had a "buy the invasion" moment, Lee said in a note. The S&P 500 opened down more than 2.6% on the invasion news, and oil prices surged above $100 per barrel. However, markets typically sell off into the buildup of geopolitical escalations but rally on the day of the invasion. Continue reading "Geopolitics - Sell The Rumor, Buy The News?"

Oil And Gas ETFs Are Headed Higher

When the Coivd-19 Pandemic began, the oil and gas industry went into the tank as demand for oil came to an abrupt halt. Around the world, air travel and domestic passenger vehicle travel were essentially non-existent when governments around the world implemented travel restrictions and lock-downs to slow the spread of the virus. Once stay-at-home orders were lifted, demand began to creep higher for oil, but since the airline industries consume a large percentage of global oil demand, for the bulk of 2020, oil prices and demand were still well off their normal levels.

As we moved further into the pandemic and passenger vehicle travel began to increase, airline and even the cruise line industry came back online, demand for gasoline quickly rose. At the start of 2022, demand was once again strong, and as the Omicron variant peeked in January, oil began flirting with $100 a barrel oil prices in the US, a level not seen since 2014.

Just a month or so later, the oil industry seems to be going through another significant change due to the Russian-Ukraine situation. Due to Russia being one of the largest oil and gas producers globally and countries around the world implementing sanctions against Russia, supply for the commodity appears to be a significant issue moving forward.

Most of Europe relies on imported Russian oil and gas. However, the longer the war in Ukraine continues, there is ever-increasing likelihood that Russian oil and gas may not Continue reading "Oil And Gas ETFs Are Headed Higher"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 3/6/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

Not a lot of clarity out there after a week of post-invasion and a state of the union speech!

There are a lot of cross-currents out there right now, and the risk just isn't worth the reward, in my view.

I'll plan to sit tight in SPY again and deploy a little risk into a new trade as I wait for more substantial clarity to show itself. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"