Category: INO.com Contributors

Q4 Approaching: Markets In Rarified Air

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The bulls have been trampling the bears in a near orderly uptrend for the past ~10 straight months now. The bear thesis couldn’t have been more wrong despite the markets facing a trifecta of rising interest rates, an unknown delta variant backdrop, and the Federal Reserve tapering later this year. The major indices are in unprecedented territory breaking through all-time high after all-time in what seems to be a daily occurrence. With Q4 2021 coming into the picture, the S&P 500 is up over 20% and places the market in rarified air.

The S&P 500 index recorded its 53rd record high on September 2nd, which makes 2021 the 5th-ranked year over the past century in terms of record highs, per Bank of America. This significant milestone has been achieved with four months remaining in 2021. The other major indices, such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, are showing similar patterns as measured via QQQ and DIA, respectively.

Stocks are overbought and at extreme valuations, as measured by any historical metric (P/E ratio, Shiller P/E ratio, and Buffet Indicator). Valuations are stretched across the board, with the major averages at all-time highs and far away above pre-pandemic highs.

Markets
Figure 1 – Adopted from Buffet Indicator analysis via Current Market Valuation

When the Fed Taper and Inflation Hit

As the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to push higher in conjunction with better-than-expected employment numbers, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to finally not only entertain the idea of raising rates but implement a rate increase. Although interest rate risk disproportionally impacts fixed-income investments such as bonds and annuities, stocks will undoubtedly be impacted as well. This is especially true for highly leveraged companies such as tech and super-charged growth companies. Even the prospect of higher rates hit the Nasdaq in March for a sharp decline, albeit that decline was quickly erased. This is a case in point of how quickly the markets can turn negative with the hint of rising rates which may be exacerbated in an already very frothy market. Continue reading "Q4 Approaching: Markets In Rarified Air" →

Gold Gets Hammered But Copper Fails To Seize The Moment

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio remains at a key decision point. Gold has been clobbered lately but a key metallic macro indicator remains in a long-term congestion zone. If it’s going to be cyclical ‘inflation ON’ we’d expect Cu/Au to break through and do what it has not done since a major inflation trade blew out in 2006-2008, and for the 30yr Treasury yield to eventually catch on and rise at least to the EMA 100 (blue line).

copper/gold ratio & 30 year treasury yield

Here is the daily futures view of Cu/Au. Going by simple TA (daily trends) it looks poised to break out to the upside, especially in the face of a government at the ready to pump Trillions more funny munny into the economy. The economically cyclical metal would benefit over the more counter-cyclical monetary metal. It’s logical, but still theoretical. Markets do not always do the logical thing, now do they? Continue reading "Gold Gets Hammered But Copper Fails To Seize The Moment" →

Using ETFs To Help You Cherry Pick Stocks

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Cathie Woods and her ARK Invest group of funds are changing the way investors look at Exchange Traded Funds in a number of ways. Whether it's from the standpoint of high-performing funds or innovative investment strategies that are looking years or even decades down the road, what Cathie and her team are doing is extraordinary. But what may be the biggest and most important innovation ARK is bringing to the investment community is the transparency her funds have shown investors.

ARK Invest gives investors the stocks they are buying. Well, every fund does that. But what ARK does, is they give you their stock buys and sells on a daily basis. Yes daily.

Furthermore, they tell you the exact amount of shares they bought or sold, the amount of money they spent (which allows you to determine the average cost), and which one of the ARK funds the shares were bought or sold in.

This is a big change from the way most funds operate, in which they post quarterly or monthly their holding list, number of shares, and percent that the company makes up in the fund based on assets under management.

While what Cathie and ARK are doing is ideal, investors can still use the information other funds provide in order to ‘cherry pick’ stocks in certain industry’s that they believe will do better than others. While this idea may not be for all investors, it is something that investors who prefer to buy individual equities, as opposed to going down the ‘fund’ route, can still use ETFs and other funds to their advantage, without ever owning them. Continue reading "Using ETFs To Help You Cherry Pick Stocks" →

Jackson Hole: The Fed Taper

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely to begin withdrawing some of its stimulatory monetary policies before the end of 2021. However, the Chairman did note that he still sees interest rate hikes off in the distance. In the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium, Powell said the economy has reached a point where it no longer needs as much monetary policy support.

Thus, the Fed will likely begin cutting the amount of bonds it buys each month before the end of the year, so long as economic progress continues. Based on statements from other central bank officials, a tapering announcement could come as soon as the Fed’s Sept. 21-22 meeting. Despite this pivot, it does necessarily mean rate increases are looming.

This pivot in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve sets the stage for the initial reduction in asset purchases and downstream interest rate hikes. As this pivot unfolds, risk appetite towards equities hangs in the balance. The speed at which rate increases hit the markets will be in part contingent upon inflation, employment, and of course, the pandemic backdrop. Inevitably, rates will rise and likely have a negative impact on equities.

Rates Hikes

Jerome Powell stated, “The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test,” He added that while inflation is solidly around the Fed’s 2% target rate, “we have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment,” which is the second prong of the central bank’s dual mandate and necessary before rate hikes happen. Continue reading "Jackson Hole: The Fed Taper" →

S&P 500 To Lose 30%?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

It is not clickbait for hype. I will take you through my observations in this post to show you why it could play out.

Every market has its stages develop over time: Boom and Bust, Growth and Correction, Collapse and Consolidation. The corrective phase could be around for the stock market.

The main question, as always, is how deep it could drop when a retracement unfolds. This is not an easy one. To see the market from different angles, I built the comparison chart as I put the S&P 500 index itself (black bars), then I added Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV) (red line) and Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF (VUG) (blue line).

S&P 500

This monthly chart starts from the major bottom in 2009. SINCE THEN, the S&P 500 index has gained more than 450% since then, the value stocks have scored more than 300%, while the growth stocks have made a jaw-dropping 715%. Continue reading "S&P 500 To Lose 30%?" →