The Ever-Growing Number Of ETFs and Their Power Over The Markets

ETFs, like Mutual Funds and Index Funds, are often praised for their ability to offer exposure to ‘risky’ equities while offering portfolio protection and reducing single stock exposure issues.

The basic idea is that instead of trying to ‘cherry-pick’ a specific winner or loser in a particular industry or sector, you can just buy a sector-based exchange traded fund and reduce your risk that you chose the wrong company to be the dominant player in that industry. Furthermore, as long as the industry itself performs well, your industry-focused ETF should follow suit, and your investment will benefit.

As the demand for ETFs increases, the vast array of offerings has also been increasing. As an investor, you are no longer constrained to just buying industry or sector-focused funds. You can now buy funds that focus on pretty much any correlating data point imaginable. Those are the ones that have strict investment guidelines, unlike some ETFs that are actively managed and give the fund managers complete control and leeway to invest wherever and however they want.

Currently, there are over 2,500 actively traded Exchange Traded Funds in the US alone. There were 32 new ETFs offered to investors in May 2021 alone. Let’s think about that for a moment. Outside of the OTC or Over the counter equities available to investors with about 11,500 stocks in 2020, roughly around 6,000 companies’ investors can buy and sell stock in which are traded on the major US exchanges, the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Yes, that is correct, 6,000 US stocks and nearly half that in US ETFs. Continue reading "The Ever-Growing Number Of ETFs and Their Power Over The Markets"

Options: 275 Trades and 5 Losses - 98% Win Rate

Deploying skill and caution when engaging in options trading can generate consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing return on investment. Options can augment portfolio appreciation across an array of different market scenarios. Over the past 13 months (May 2020 – May 2021) and 275 trades, a win rate of 98% was achieved with an average ROI per winning trade of 8.0% and an overall option premium capture of 85%.

The performance of an options-based portfolio demonstrates the durability and resiliency of options trading to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk via a beta-controlled manner. The options-based approach circumvented the September 2020, October 2020, and January 2021 sell-offs while outperforming/matching the S&P 500 over the 13-month post-pandemic bull run, posting returns of 58.2% and 61.8%, respectively (Figures 1-5).

Despite these results over the past 13-plus months and 275 trades, limitations and challenges come with any trading system. Specifically, acts of nature, legislative and regulatory actions can jeopardize option trades. Here, I will walk through the five trades that resulted in losses and the underlying reasons as to why these were beyond any remediation efforts. Legislative and regulatory risks are two areas that pose some of the greatest company-specific and/or sector-specific challenges.

Options
Figure 1 – Overall option tickers used from April 2020 – May 2021
Continue reading "Options: 275 Trades and 5 Losses - 98% Win Rate"

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March 2021

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production gained 1.401 million barrels per day, averaging 11.184 mmbd. This follows a drop of 1.273 mmb/d in February due to the freeze in Texas. The March 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.968 mmbd, a figure that was 216,000 lower than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

Crude

Gains in production were experienced in Texas (990,000), New Mexico (172,000), the Gulf of Mexico (107,000), Oklahoma (87,000), and North Dakota (14,000 b/d). Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March 2021"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 5/30/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) extended the range forward this week, which, as noted, was the most likely scenario.

The inaction this week has “coiled the spring” in the market, and I would expect to see an increase of volatility next week. In terms of a forecast for this week, I can’t make one with confidence as the odds are about 50/50 right now in both directions as the market’s supply/demand forces are balanced right now.

There is little motivation with the indexes, so quiet to add risk this week, and I suspect we will see a bullish whipsaw before any retest of the range lows can occur.

Time to keep my powder dry and wait for one side or the other to commit. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Can Silver Futures Crack $30?

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 27.48 an ounce while currently trading at 27.88, up about $0.40 for the week as prices have been stuck in a 2 week consolidation pattern.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 25.85 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop-loss under the 2 week low, which now stands at 27.26 on a closing basis only. The chart structure is outstanding as we are only an eyelash away from getting stopped out.

Silver prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. I still think prices will crack the 30 level. I also have a bullish recommendation in the platinum market as I think that will join the party eventually.

I think the entire precious metal sector continues to move higher throughout 2021 as I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside if prices break the 30 level, so keep a close eye on this market as we could be doubling up in next week's trade as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the July contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session, up another 70 points at 119.25 after settling last Friday in New York at 117.95 as prices have now hit a 10-week high. Continue reading "Can Silver Futures Crack $30?"