Platinum And Palladium Chart Analysis

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Platinum Monthly Chart Analysis

Platinum fell in a downtrend in 2011 after the price formed a reversal double top pattern, which was confirmed on the RSI. Price rapidly reached $1400/oz, scoring $445 for the bears. The market easily overcame 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels, but was stopped in four consecutive attempts by a very hard 50% level at $1345/oz. The bulls didn't jump at their chance to break upside at the $1676 level after consolidation. Later this peak became the downtrend touch point. It could be classic ascending triangle pattern, but the market turned sideways shaping a rectangle formation instead.

You can see on the chart how accurately the RSI indicator shows real and false breaks on the market. In 2013, the RSI didn't break the 40 level support twice, while price moved below $1400 support twice. And the market reversed up inside of the rectangle.

This year, the price was squeezed between downtrend resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the $1470 level on the upside and the rectangle's support at the $1400 level on the lower side. After impulse accumulated enough power, the market first tried testing the upside, but failed and in September moved down and cracked both the $1400 level rectangle support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the last one only with the 5th attempt.

Platinum swiftly appeared at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $1221/oz. The price managed to drop below it for a while, but the market closed higher at the $1224 level. Continue reading "Platinum And Palladium Chart Analysis"

Will Silver Drop To $4-5/oz?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals

Gold Chart Analysis

On a monthly chart of gold (FOREX_XAUUSDO), the 6 year cycle has entered the final period after the price peaked in 2011 at $1823 close. A descending continuation triangle pattern has been formed. This suggests that the price will proceed in a downward movement.

This line chart shows monthly market closes and it clearly indicates that the triangle's base was broken at the $1180-$1205 level. The price, already for two consecutive months, managed to close below first support. This signal confirms the pattern.

The target is calculated as the distance of the trend before the Triangle was formed, from the peak in August 2012 close at $1764/oz to the low of May 2013 close at $1243/oz, and projected below the triangle's base. I calculated $700/oz level as the target for our move with simple approximation, which coincides with the 6 year cycle's start or base level. This gives more weight to the power of this level.

There is very tough support between $1200 and $700 levels located at $1000/oz. Firstly, it's an important psychological level and secondly, it is a former stiff resistance which was broken only from a 4th attempt in 2009. Only this level can be a serious obstacle on the way down.

Although we see a clear bearish trend, we can't rule out a pattern breakout or total reversal of the trend.

On the upside, the first good resistance is at the $1300 level which is the triangle's upper side, the second good resistance is $1400 – the triangle's first peak.

Gold 1


Silver Chart Analysis

Let's move onto silver (FOREX_XAGUSDO). Like the previous chart of gold, we see a 6 year fading cycle, but the curve is steeper for silver. And of course, you can see that silver dropped far deeper than the gold. If gold dropped around 40% from it's all time high in 2011, then silver plummeted an impressive 70%! Since silver is less liquid, that would explain its volatility. Silver's price action is a good indicator for gold's future moves. Keep that in mind while you search for trading opportunities.

This metal broke all major supports, including the very important level at $20/oz, which is a former resistance level that couldn't be broken for 3 years in a row. Next was the triangle's base at $19/oz. After it was passed, the price quickly fell to new lows at $15/oz. The target was calculated in the same manner as it was calculated for gold, at $4-5/oz to the downside. I would be very cautious once the price reaches $10/oz. Anywhere a two-digit number turns into a one-digit number is an area of prime psychological importance.


Price can start to be volatile between the $10 and $20 levels, which then acts as resistance for a possible price pullback.

After $20, the next good resistance is located at the $24-$35 level, which is the peak of the triangle.

Silver Analysis


Visit back for my metals analysis next week.

Lucky trades,

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.