Tag: chart analysis

Gold Update: Handle Is Broken, Cup is Next, Target $2,800

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Back in October 2020, one of our readers suggested that the famous Cup & Handle pattern could have been built in the gold chart. I have checked his idea and visualized it in that very chart below from the past.

Gold

At that time, the main element Cup had already been shaped (blue). The final part of Handle was yet to appear. I highlighted the hypothetical trajectory with an orange zigzag in the declining red channel.

Let's see what is going on in the gold futures monthly chart below to check if that assumption came true. Continue reading "Gold Update: Handle Is Broken, Cup is Next, Target $2,800" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 2/13/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

After literally years of watching the S&P 500 top out, correct about 10%, then running in a straight line back to highs due to the Fed printing money. I think this is the lower high that I have been waiting for. As I have stated before, the Fed is losing control of the economy, and if this is true, then this is the best short entry available.

This short trade will live or die based on the action of the Fed, but if I'm right and this is the moment in history where the "pump" fails, the downside potential will be VERY rich.

It's time... now, let's see how wacky things get over the next couple of weeks. As the old Chinese saying goes, "may you live in interesting times"! Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

Dollar Fades After Hitting The Target

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last December, in the post titled "Is The Dollar Going To Steal The Santa Claus Rally?" I had shown you how a well-known “Double Bottom pattern” had been emerging in the daily chart. According to your voting, most of you have spotted that model as well.

I put the updated chart below to show you the path of the price on its way to the target.

Dollar Chart

The dollar index (DX) has tried to climb over the previous top right after the post. This promising attempt has failed (red X), turning into the deeper complex consolidation (red down arrow). The good thing from a technical point of view was that the price has remained above the Neckline, although the depth of correction was scary. Continue reading "Dollar Fades After Hitting The Target" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 1/30/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

I'm putting my trading operations back together after a week plus away from my screens due to the good old-fashioned stomach flu that has marched its way through the family one by one, laying us out flat. This was a top 5 bug for sure; I haven't been that debilitated in many years. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

A Macro View For Stocks, Commodities And Gold

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

This is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow.

  • The yield curve is on a flattening trend that started signaling the beginning of the end of the inflation trades since the flattener began last April.
  • The Silver/Gold ratio has failed to establish any sort of firm signal to back the inflation trades since silver blew out with the ill-fated #silversqueeze promotion a year ago. That remains the case today.
  • Canada’s TSX-V index has gone bearish nominally and never did break its downtrend in relation to the senior TSX index. This is negative signaling for the more speculative inflation trades.
  • The Baltic Dry index of global shipping prices is in the tank, so to speak, having topped in October and dropped by 75% since.
  • Credit spreads are still intact, but bear watching as nominal junk bonds come under stress.
  • Industrial metals are still rising vs. the gold price, a still-intact macro positive, although Copper/Gold ratio continues to be undecided and a potential warning.
  • Gold had exploded upward vs. US (SPX/SPY) and global (ACWX) stocks. As we noted in an NFTRH update at the time, it would be subject to a potentially severe pullback whether or not the ratio has bottomed. The pullback started on Wednesday (FOMC day, and who is surprised?), and when gold bottoms vs. stocks the macro will be indicated to go quite bearish. For now, we’re neutral on the short-term.

With that macro backdrop in mind, let’s update three areas, US Stocks, Commodities, and Gold. Continue reading "A Macro View For Stocks, Commodities And Gold" →