Tag: Chris Vermeulen

Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

The Transportation Index, which typically leads the US stock market by 2 to 4+months, has been unusually aligned with the S&P 500 over the past 8+ months. Recently, though, the Transportation Index has rallied up to recent new all-time highs (over the past 9+ months) and has rotated lower – below resistance near 11,440 (the MAGENTA LINE on the first chart). Our researchers are warning us that any continued breakdown below this level could prompt a bigger downside market move.

Is recent rotation a topping pattern or just consolidation?

Currently, the US stock market has rolled into a sideways/topping pattern. After the peak in metals setup near August 7, 2020, the US stock market continued to rally a bit higher, then rotated lower on September 3, 2020. The Transportation Index rolled over on September 3 but climbed higher less than 5 trading days later – breaking above the highs set before the COVID-19 peak.

We’ve suggested a “Bull Trap” pattern may be forming in the major markets, and we’ve urged traders to be cautious regarding the new price highs and appearance of a continued upside price rally. The Bull Trap pattern, sometimes called a “Scouting Party,” happens when price breaks above resistance (or below support) briefly in an attempt to establish a new trend. If the price fails to find support after breaking above the previous resistance level, it typically rotates lower and collapses back below the resistance level (attempting to find a lower support level).

If our research is correct, the recent rotation in the Transportation Index may suggest a Bull Trap pattern has set up and completed (with the price falling back below the 11,440 level). If this trend continues, we may see a much bigger downside price move where price attempts to find support near 9,800 or 9,200. Continue reading "Topping Pattern Or Just Consolidation?" →

Is The Bull Trap Complete?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Some of you may be old enough to remember when Desert Storm started in January 1991. The news of this war took the US and the world by storm – almost literally. It was televised and it changed the way people lived their lives at that time. People were almost glued to the TV watching the videos and satellite feeds. It turned into the ultimate reality TV series – must-see TV.

The US markets reacted to this foreign engagement. At first, the markets rallied for about 7+ weeks in early 1991, then they started to consolidate below resistance. For many people and businesses, this new reality event presented very real challenges for revenues and growth. Many businesses were forced to close because of the sudden shift in consumer activity and concerns. The reason I’m bringing this up right now is that I believe we are experiencing a new type of “reality event” (actually events) that has transitioned to become a driving force in the markets, namely COVID and the protests/riots in many cities across the US.

Chaos & Disease – The Ultimate Distractions

With the US Presidential Election only about 60+ days away and winter fast approaching, the US has a number of fundamental issues to contend with going forward. What happens if the US elections are contested in the courts? What happens to policy and the support for the consumer/markets when the US government potentially enters this chaotic phase? What happens when winter hits and businesses that have been struggling through the warm summer months suddenly find themselves losing more revenues and customers? What happens if the streets remain in a state of unrest throughout the rest of this year and into next year? Continue reading "Is The Bull Trap Complete?" →

Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Are the precious metals patterns predicting a big downside price event?

Our trading team witnessed a big drop in Platinum and Palladium prices early this morning while Gold and Silver continued to push moderately higher. We began to question this move and investigate any historical relevance to previous patterns. Our research team pointed out that both Platinum and Palladium rolled lower just 3 to 4 days before the breakdown in the US stock markets on February 24, 2020, while Gold and Silver were reaching recent price peaks. Could the patterns in precious metals be a warning of another potential volatility spike and price decline in the near future?

Our research team created the charts below to help highlight the pattern that we are seeing in Precious Metals right now. First, we highlighted February 24, 2020, with a light blue vertical line to more clearly illustrate where the markets initiated the COVID-19 breakdown event. Next, we drew shaded rectangles around new downside price rotation levels that took place near this peak in the US stock markets. Lastly, we drew a red line that highlights the subsequent price decline that took place in Precious Metals as the markets tanked in late February and early March 2020.

Precious Metals

The current downside price move in Platinum and Palladium are very interesting because it appears Platinum and Palladium both initiated a downside/contraction price event just 3 to 4 days before Gold and Silver, as well as the rest of the US stock market, began to collapse on February 25, 2020. You can clearly see in the bottom two charts that Platinum and Palladium initiated a downside price correction a few days before both Gold and Silver reached their peak levels and began to move lower. Once this peak rotation took place, all four of the major metals groups moved moderately lower for about 7 days before pausing, then collapsed even further. Continue reading "Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility" →

Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

The move we saw in Silver early this week to new 6-year high price levels, above $22.60, is quite likely the biggest upside move in Silver since the bottom in March 2020 – after the US stock market collapsed because of the COVID-19 virus event. This new rally in Silver is likely the move we’ve been suggesting to our followers relating to a series of measured upside price moves totaling approximately $5.30 in each advance.

As traders, watching bonds accelerate moderately higher as the US Dollar falls and the stock market attempts new lofty levels, we are intrigued by the move in metals because it suggests a large segment of investors believe a bubble is nearing very peak valuation levels. The only reason metals, particularly Silver, would be accelerating as it has recently is that traders have suddenly adopted a stronger demand for second-stage hedging of risk.

Gold is the traditional hedge for many traders in times of risk. Silver, being the second-tier hedge, typically start to rally 4 to 6+ months after Gold begins to move substantially higher. Gold is currently trading near all-time highs – near $1820. Silver just recently bottomed in March 2020 near $11.65 and has rallied more than 70% to current levels – above $20.35. If our research is correct, Silver will rally to levels above $26 within this current upside rally.

The multiple measured moves in Gold and Silver suggest waves of price advances happen in a series of structured upside price moves. We believe this current upside move in Silver will push price levels above $26 per ounce. If Gold continues to rally as Silver rallies, then future measured moves should target $31.50 and $36.75 in Silver – possibly higher. Continue reading "Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt" →

Financial Sector ETF May Break Below Price Gap

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Our research team warned of a peak in the Financial Sector ETF on June 10, 2020, with this article.

It was important to understand the technical setup that existed at that time and what the Fibonacci Price Modeling system was showing then. There was very clear support near $23 that was highlighted by the Fibonacci Price Modeling System, and we were very clear in our future price predictions within that article.

"The $27 price peak sets up directly between our two Fibonacci Daily upside price target (Peak) levels. We believe this setup is a very strong indication that a move to below $23 may be setting up over the next 30+ days. The Q2 data may very well push investors to re-evaluate the potential for the Financial sector if delinquencies and at-risk borrowers continue to default in greater numbers."

The timing of our original article could not have been better for skilled technical traders. Since that June 10, 2020 article posted, the XLF price has fallen almost exactly to $23 (-10.15%).

Currently, the FLX price is recovering just above the price gap that will act as the next "window" for the price to attempt to fill. Skilled technical traders should watch Continue reading "Financial Sector ETF May Break Below Price Gap" →