Major U.S. indices closed mixed last week, with the broad-market SP 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 closing higher and the blue-chip Dow industrials and small-cap Russell 2000 closing lower. The bigger takeaway to last week's lack of direction is that the bellwether SP 500 has been moving sideways for the past month and is essentially unchanged since July 1.
This recent loss of upward momentum suggests some distribution/profit-taking has been occurring and defines a near-term decision point in the index, bordered by 1,986 on the upside and 1,953 on the downside, from which its 2014 advance must resume if still healthy and intact.
Small Caps, Volatility Will Be Key Again This Week
In the July 14 and July 21 Market Outlooks, I pointed out that the Russell 2000 and the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: VBK) were situated right on top of major support levels and amid favorable conditions to resume their 2014 advances -- if they were still valid. Following initial rebounds, Friday's sharp decline positioned both back on top of these levels -- 1,143 on the Russell 2000 and $121.53 on VBK. Continue reading "Next Gold Buying Opportunity May Be Just Around the Corner"→
Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.
While the markets are packed with data throughout the week, the most important numbers will come on Wednesday when the FOMC releases their Interest Rate Decision. We will also hear from the Bank of Japan later in the week, but that report is scheduled as tentative at this point. Aside from these two Central Bank announcements, we expect the scheduled data that includes unemployment, CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Home Sales, and Retail Sales data to take a back seat. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week - Bulls vs. Bears"→
Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) has been so much out of favor over the last couple of years that it seems like no one is really looking or talking about this market anymore.
I was looking through a bunch of charts last night and I found some interesting technical aspects to gold that I would like to share with you today. Looking at the chart below, we can easily see the Fibonacci correction in gold. The gold market retraced back to an area of natural Fibonacci support, which is between the $1,170 and $1,308 levels. This represents major 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracements on the chart.
The gold market also found support in a long-term trend line, which started in 2005. This is extremely important in my view as the trend line is in an upward trajectory. We would need to see gold move into some sort of consolidation pattern before we would see a reversal to the upside in this market.
At the moment, all of our Trade Triangles are negative and I do not recommend going against these indicators. As you can see by the trading results, just by following the Weekly Trade Triangles, you do so at your own peril.
One of the hardest things for most investors and traders to do is to buy something that's been going down for a long time, investors are just not mentally prepared to do that. The purpose of today's posting is to mentally prepare you to start thinking about gold and putting gold on your radar screen for a future move. When it begins, I believe we could see a significant upside rally in this metal.
So let's wrap up with the positives and negatives for gold. Starting with the potential positives, the Fibonacci numbers and the long-term trend line from 2005 all support the long-term upward trend in gold. On the negative side, all of our Trade Triangles are red, indicating that the trend is still down.
Ideally what I would like to see in gold is a combination of the market moving out of its support area and our long and intermediate term Trade Triangles turning green and positive.
Have a great trading day. Adam Hewison
If you've been watching my videos, today's dramatic drop was no surprise. On June 12th, I made a rather prophetic blog posting, "The Next $100 Move In Gold". I published a video indicating that the next major move in gold would be to the downside. Not only did the Trade Triangles indicate lower gold prices were ahead, I also gave downside predictions. These predictions and target zones are all spelled out in this must watch 8 day old video!
The video runs just under 4 minutes and contains a lifetime of trading education.
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