Tag: Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO)

Bull Market Or Bear Market, Which Is It?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

There's no doubt that the dramatic 800 point rally we have seen the past three days is practically unprecedented, but did it change the major trend of the market?

The simple answer is no, the longer-term trend for the equity markets at the moment remains negative. But please don't misunderstand what I'm saying, I was as surprised as anybody at the velocity of the rally which exceeded the Fibonacci retracement levels I discussed recently.

Today should be an interesting day to say the least, and I doubt seriously that the market can close higher and would expect to see some sort of pullback from the current levels. There is also what I would consider to be a major resistance based on the highs that were hit on Feb. 1st at the 1939 level on the S&P 500. Providing that level holds, we are still basically in a downward trending market, albeit a choppy one.

Gold

The pullback in gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) appears to be consolidating, which is good given its rapid move to the upside. In an ideal world, I would like to see gold continue to consolidate around the $1200 level before once again moving higher. I still believe that gold has broken the back of its four-year bear trend and has now embarked on a long-term bullish trend that could take it to the year 2020. Be sure to watch the Trade Triangles for signals that gold has once again embarked on an upward move. Continue reading "Bull Market Or Bear Market, Which Is It?" →

Has Gold Suddenly Lost Its Glitter?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Here we are starting a new trading week and the big news is a sharp rally in equities and a big pullback in gold. The question on everyone's mind is, "is this for real or just a rally in a bear market in equities and a pullback in the bull market for gold?"

Gold

Let's take a look at gold, first of all. I believe that the gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) market has finally come to life again after hitting a peak in August 2011 and then losing the half its value over a period of four years.

Looking at a long-term chart of monthly gold prices you can see that (2) was the first time that gold had moved below the RSI 50 line. This long-term indicator was showing you that gold prices were in serious trouble. It is also worth noting that the RSI indicator (3) has stopped every rally in gold. I expect to see more consolidation in this market and then see gold break over its resistance at the RSI 50 level. When that happens, expect to see a potential multiyear bull market to take place in gold.

Monthly Chart of Gold

Continue reading "Has Gold Suddenly Lost Its Glitter?" →

It's Not Over Until It's Over And It's Not Over Yet - Part 2

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub members everywhere! Well, today's sharp drop in equity prices and the rally in gold should come as no surprise as I have been talking about this since the beginning of the year. In fact, here's my first post where I explained why I thought the bear market was going to continue in the equities market. I'm not going to go over the reasons again as to why the markets are going down, suffice to say they are going down and are likely to continue.

At the moment all of the central banks, including the Fed, are clueless as to what to do. Instead of spending time on a cure in 2008, we made it easy for everyone to "take a pill" and mask over the problem. Since it did not cure the problem, we all have to suffer now as the markets readjust and face the music. The new hard reality is that there is no wonder pill.

Let's take a look at the major indices and see how far they could fall based on Fibonacci retracement levels and technical measurements. Continue reading "It's Not Over Until It's Over And It's Not Over Yet - Part 2" →

Gold Update: Unstoppable?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It's been awhile since I posted my last gold update in October. I haven't written about gold because everything was going by the plan: gold fell right after the post and even hit a new low making bears happy. I expected to wait for the week of the 29th of February as it was my time target in that update. But gold's price overshot the recent high which was the starting point for the last drop towards the new bottom invalidating the experiment.

Below is the chart from my earlier gold post to refresh your memory. I added blue call-outs with some new comments to show where it went wrong.

Chart 1: Updated Experimental Gold Chart

Updated Experimental Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

I shadowed the part of the chart before the post date (October 22nd) to highlight the progress of the price. Gold quickly plunged down from the post date. It went all the way down with the largest drop in November and hit a new multi-year low at the $1046 level at the end. Continue reading "Gold Update: Unstoppable?" →

Anatomy Of The Gold Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Well it was quite a weekend here on the East Coast with a record-breaking blizzard that closed down Washington DC today and made digging out from the 30-some inches of snow quite an interesting challenge. For those of you who live on the East Coast like us, we hope that you and your loved ones were all safe over this dangerous storm.

Now let's take a look at the gold market. This market has been in a bear market for the last four years, almost the exact opposite of the equity markets that have been going up for the last six years. It appears technically that gold is once again coming into style as more investors are becoming leery of the equity markets and the value of their holdings and money in general.

A great deal of this uncertainty has been created by the Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank which seemed to have run out of ideas and tools. It appears to this observer that in the last few years these two central banks have literally been winging it on a hope and a prayer. I hope I am wrong on the one as it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

8 year daily chart of gold

CHART 1

Looking at the long-term chart of gold, you see a MAJOR LONG-TERM SUPPORT TREND LINE that supported gold for several years before it was broken (see figure 1 on the chart). After breaking below the support line, the gold market again tried to rally, but failed (you can see this in figure 2), which created a TWIN MOUNTAIN TOP. Once through (figure 3) the PIVOT POINT, it was all over for gold as it moved into a major bear market that has now lasted just over four years.

The big question is … has the bear market in gold come to an end? Continue reading "Anatomy Of The Gold Market" →