Tape Reading

For today's guest blog post, I've asked Kunal Vakil from MySMP.com to come back and teach us a bit about Tape Reading.

===================================================================

By Kunal Vakil, co-founder of http://www.mysmp.com/

08/12/2008

What is the Time and Sales Window?

From my experience in day trading over the last few years, my most valuable tool became the time and sales window, aka. the "Tape". The time and sales window basically shows the trader detailed information regarding the order flow for a particular security. The time and sales window provides details on each of the trades that have gone through for that security, such as: Time of Trade, Price, Size of order, and condition of order. Depending on the trading platform, you will have other data points available to you.

After mastering the message of the tape, you will be able to accurately decide when to enter and exit a trade.

How do I get access to the Time and Sales Window?

There are few brokers in the marketplace that offer the time and sales window to their customers. Typically, only trading platforms which are suited for day traders offer this option. I use Tradestation and as you can see in the image above, provides all the key elements that will allow one to effectively read the tape.

How to Use the Time and Sales Window

I am a very big believer that there are two truths in trading stocks. One is price and the other is volume. Tape reading involves both; and if used correctly, dramatically increases the odds of your trading working out. It does so due to the fact that your goal with tape reading is to follow the money.

While some professional traders may not like to admit it, trading stocks is an odds game. Your job as a trader is to put trades on with the highest odds of winning. Trading with the tape requires trading with patience. You cannot go out and buy or short a stock because you see the tape speeding up a bit. You need to be aware of support and resistance levels and also combine the message of the tape with price pattern formations.

Tape reading can be very fast and confusing at times and requires quite a bit of practice in order to get used to understanding the true meaning behind what you are seeing. Remember, every stock is a different story and tends to trade differently. It is wise to review the way in which the "tape" trades for a couple of minutes before entering a trade. Reading the tape requires you to train your eyes to scan for changes in character. I want to discuss a few of these key changes that you should take note of:

Size of Orders

Lets start with size. The size of the orders coming through will help you decide if there is conviction behind the price action you are seeing. When putting on a trade, you typically want to see a flurry of buy or sell orders which have greater than 300 to 400 shares in size. There is no hard and fast rule about this; it is more of a visual cue that your eye gets trained to recognize. Many times, I will see great technical setups in stocks that trade low volume. I stay away from these setups as the message of the tape is not as clear and this lowers my odds of a winning trade.

Order Speed

The speed of the orders is another key component to the message that the tape is giving you. Typically, when stocks breakout through support or resistance levels, not only will the size of the orders go higher but you will see the tape start to speed up. This gives you an indication that there is an interest in this stock at this level and that the interest is larger than a couple small traders buying or selling.

Order Condition

Order condition refers to which side of the bid/ask spread the trade was executed on. When we go long a stock, we want to see many orders being executed at ASK. Conversely, when we go short, we want to see orders being filled at BID. This gives us a clue as how desperate traders are to get into our out of this stock.

Speaking from Experience...

Above, I have reviewed a few basic principles of tape reading but I want to discuss some of lessons I have learned throughout my years of trading that I think you will find helpful when analyzing the tape.

Which stocks are best to trade?

I have received this question many times. The answer to this question for me is simple, I only trade the most volatile stocks of the day. These stocks are the ones which will provide you with strong volume and large interest from the public. They also provide strong and fast moves which you can make larger profits from. Remember, we need to see speed in the tape and that requires a stock with public interest.

Does the tape work better during specific times of the day?

In my experience, the answer to this question is YES. I typically only trade the first 2 hours of the day. This is when the most volatility is present in the market and also when most of the trending moves are made. Typically, lunchtime becomes very choppy and has a different group of traders who are buying or selling for different reasons than the first hour. I am not ruling out trading after lunchtime, however, my results have been less than stellar when I attempted to do so.

Tape Reading with Level 2

The level 2 window provides the trader with an edge. It will show you the sizes of the orders in the market makers book. While the market makers can play games with the level 2 in order to fool traders, in general you want to see high bid sizes and low ask sizes when you go long. On the flip side, you want to see low bid sizes and high ask sizes when you go short or sell out of a stock. Again, its not foolproof but it adds to the odds of your trading winning.

Exiting a trade

This is probably the most difficult part of the trade for most traders. Tape reading helps me get out of the trade by looking for imbalances. When I see a stock moving sharply in one direction, I will immediately look to the tape to offer clues as to when the brake pads will be applied. Again, this skill will take practice to develop. If your short a stock, keep an eye out for the bid side getting heavy and the bid/ask spread widening. This could be a tell tale sign that the juice has been used up.

Bid/Ask Spread at Key Levels

Make sure that stock does not have large bid/ask spreads as it approaches your entry points. You will not have much time to place you trade and if you are trading a volatile stock, you most likely will have to execute the orders at market. Large spreads tell me two things; first, your risk increases significantly when the spread increases. Why? Because most times you will have trouble getting out of a stock with a large spread using limit orders and this can turn a small loss into a big one quite quickly. Secondly, it tells me that there is not that much interest in the stock. If there was, the spreads would narrow and both sides would come as close as possible.

Extremely High Volume Stocks

There is trading high volume and then there is trading extremely high volume. I try and stay away from stocks that trade, for example, 30 or 40 million shares as the message of their tapes can be a bit confusing at times if your a beginner. You may see 14 orders come through at bid with large sizes but that may not mean as much as if the stock was trading less volume. Remember to always keep everything in context. If your stock trades gigantic volume, you should expect a different kind of tape action.

Make price prove the point

Up to this point, we have discussed order size, speed, and condition. While these are all key components of the tape, you must let price prove the point. For example, if you are looking to short a stock at $54 and there is strong order flow selling at bid at that level, my experience has shown me to wait for that level to break. If it does not, you may be involved in a trap that was made to get the weak traders out and then take the stock in the opposite direction.

Don't let your ego get in your way

One of the biggest mistakes that I see many traders making is that they get attached to their positions. In an effort to appease their ego's, they tend to take a trade and stick with it until they are right. Remember, day trading is an extremely fast game and if you do not react with speed, you will be left in the dust. When you make a decision based on that tape action and the stock does not go in your favor relatively quickly, odds are that you are in a bad trade.

Focus

It is extremely important to have utmost focus when you are trading and trying to listen to the message that tape is giving you. Try and stay in a zone and filter out the extra noise. If you are going to put a trade on, be in that trade and nothing else. This will help you feel when it is right to stay in the stock and when its time to get out.

Conclusion

Tape reading is a very important skill to have as a short term trader and can keep you out of many bad trades. Remember, don't be an action junkie, psyching yourself up for every trade. If you do this, you will find a reason to put on bad trades in the heat of the moment. Discipline is key and it takes time to develop. For any new traders looking to try this out, please practice, practice, practice before you put your hard earned money at work. Mastering the art of tape reading will take time, but when you do, you will be rewarded.

The Symmetry In The Market Is Incredible

Today's guest blogger comes from the popular MYSMP.com site and it's creator Kunal Vakil. Kunal is a man who is plugged into the market literally!! I asked him to give his unique perspective on the market...and it's symmetry.

===========================================================

First off, I want to thank Adam and Trader's Blog for allowing me to post my materials on Trader's blog.

Today, I want to share my thoughts on the S&P 500 and where I see it heading before this bear market is over. And, yes, we are in a bear market. Not only has the Dow Jones already fallen 20% off its highs of last year with the S&P 500 nearly there as well, but the price action in the broad markets has been that of a bear market. It is typical to see sharp sell-offs and ferocious bear market rallies which make even the bears capitulate, all before the market begins a move lower again. Big volume down, and low volume up. This is precisely what we have seen since the top at 1576.09 on the S&P back in October of 2007.

Now, let's talk about the culprit a little. We know that the banking index has been decimated with the exacerbating write-downs and credit quality issues due to the unscrupulous practices of many bankers and loan brokers. Many banks have lost over 50% of their value, and the beating continues. As we review the daily charts of the major banks, one can easily see a pattern that is definitive of a bear market, lower highs and lower lows. From looking at these charts, it is my firm opinion that the worst is not over yet. We are probably half way through the write-down cycle. Now what does this mean for us as traders?

Well, here is what I am watching very carefully. I want to see some of the major banks (ie. C, LEH, MER, MS, GS, FNM, FRE) start to show signs of strength relative to the entire market. I want to start seeing them make higher lows and higher highs. I want to see a base building process develop within these stocks. I want to see volume lighten up to the downside and increase to the upside. When these developments start to take place, we can start to look for long entries in these stocks. Is the US banking sector going to fall to 0? NO!, but don't try and catch a falling knife, stay patient. Remember, Cheap can always get cheaper...and it has.

Moving back to the S&P 500, I want to now walk you through a few charts that will illustrate where I think this market is headed by the Sept./October timeframe. This period historically provides some dynamite buying opportunities and it looks like this year wont disappoint.

On longer term charts, especially index charts, Fibonacci retracements and extensions offer good points of support and resistance. Here you can see that the S&P has a major support area at the 1171 area. I will show you why this is a very important level.

Our next chart is another weekly chart of the S&P, however, this time notice the Fibonacci extension. Notice the initial move off the top and the subsequent rally off that reaction low created an extension target between 1353 to 1248. Notice how the 1.382 and 1.618 levels held the two lows set in January and March and the market showed its weakness by extending down to the lower end of that zone.

The next chart shows you the current extension that we are watching now. It starts with the December 2007 highs going down to the March lows and the retracement up is at the May highs around 1440. Now, notice the extension targets. The 100% extension takes us down to 1173.65, very close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level in our first chart.

One final point in terms of symmetry that I want to make here. Back in 2003 when we were looking for a breakout in this market, the 1165 to 1175 range was a key pivotal area we watched. It represented the neckline of a massive W bottom, which some would call an inverted head and shoulders. This area is going to provide massive support on the way down.

All things considered, I am looking for another 100 point drop in this index before I can see a true bottom being put in. Remember, you want to watch the leaders on the way up and the way down. The banks have been providing that leadership and are showing no signs of letting up. Therefore, we are not bottom picking here. The speculative soul in me believes that the shoe is going to drop with one of the big banks out there. Time will tell but until then, be safe and protect your downside risk.

All the best,

Kunal Vakil

MYSMP.com