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Chart of The Week - Natural Gas

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

To start the week, we will be watching Natural Gas futures closely. July Natural Gas saw a spike higher overnight to $4.89, but gave back those gains in the early morning hours. There is a measure of support in the market as Russia has halted Natural Gas flows to the Ukraine. Along with halted Natural Gas flows to the Uklraine, the US Natural Gas storage remains tight and sits well below the 5 year average. With a warmer weather outlook across the US, the case can be made for a bullish week in Natural Gas.

On the technical side, Natural Gas has sold off to a critical area of support at $4.70. This bullish trend-line was broken in mid-May and since become resistance in the market. After last week’s EIA inventory report on Thursday morning, the market spiked back above this trend-line with closes above it on both Thursday and Friday. In today’s session, Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Natural Gas" →

Chart of The Week - 30 Year Treasury Bonds

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week's focus turns to the September 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures. The S&P 500 stock index has closed in the green 6 out of the past 7 trading sessions and many investors feel it may be time for stocks to partake in a minor correction. Typically, gold futures will receive a lot of the flight to safety bid in this case. Due to the recent break of consolidation in gold futures with the path of least resistance pointing down, 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures look to be the candidate to receive this bid.

On the technical side, September 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures have held a perfect bullish market structure since early April. Since the trend has been established, the market has held on every test making higher highs and higher lows. Since establishing a new high print of 138.10 last week, we have once again seen a retracement towards the original trend-line as the market looks for support. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - 30 Year Treasury Bonds" →

Chart of The Week - Gold

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Further Downside Expected as Gold Finally Chooses Its Direction

This week's market focus turns to August Gold futures, where a break out of recent consolidation may have finally determined the near term direction of Gold. The week starts out extremely bearish for Gold as the stock market continues to establish new all-time high levels. Recent economic numbers that have missed the mark have provided additional confidence to stock market investors that FED support will continue in the stock market. Optimism that stocks can continue their higher track has taken away from the safe haven appeal of gold.

Over the past month, August Gold futures have consolidated into a very tight range as the market has been deciding on its future direction. As of this morning the direction looks to be a sell off for the foreseeable future. With a break of the recent pennant pattern at $1285, the next downside target will be $1240. A close below $1280 in today’s session would confirm a further potential downside move over the coming months.

To take advantage of this downside continuation, I would look to purchase August put option strategies in gold that would take advantage of the next potential continuation move to $1240, while allowing roughly 2 months for the strategy to work. These strategies would expire on July 28th. Per strategy used, we would look to keep the maximum exposure in the market to $500 and the maximum profit potential to $2,500.

I advise clients on trading futures and futures options markets on a day to day basis. If you have any questions regarding this chart or questions regarding trading futures and futures options, feel free to call me directly at 888-272-6926.

Thank you for your interest,
James Leeney
Account Executive
Phone: (888) 272-6926
www.longleaftrading.com

** There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data contained in this article was obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Information provided in this article is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this article will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Chart of The Week - Live Cattle

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Live Cattle Futures Will Continue to Rise Throughout the Summer.

This week's focus turns to August Live Cattle Futures. I am sure many readers have seen the price of beef steadily increasing, especially as of late. In recent years, the state of Texas has been experiencing severe drought conditions which have significantly depleted the state's water source and has limited the amount of cattle that it produces. These conditions have caused ranchers to limit the amount of cattle output, or in some cases close up shop completely. We've had less and less supply to consume which has caused Live Cattle prices to steadily rise.

Over the coming summer months, I expect this trend to continue. US cattle herds are currently at a 54 year low. Along with already tight supply fundamentals, there have been almanac predictions for exceptionally hot conditions across much of the country, Texas included, in late June and through the month of July. The extreme seasonal weather that much of the country saw this past winter is expected to continue throughout the summer. I think that the conditions in Texas will continue to keep supply tight and increase the price of Live Cattle into the month of August.

The case for a bullish Live Cattle market is also strong on the technical side. We have seen a steep uptrend in Live Cattle futures since late last year. In the past 2 weeks, the market has consolidated its bullish move to form a perfect pennant pattern which is a continuation signal. If the market breaks this pennant formation strongly to the upside, the next near-term target would be 146.00. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Live Cattle" →

Chart of The Week - Natural Gas

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

June Natural Gas (NYMEX:NG.M14.E) opened sharply higher in Sunday evenings session, but since the open prices plummeted to a 5 day low. The sell off confirmed a bearish outside reversal ahead of today's US session. June Natural Gas futures remain under pressure from last week's EIA storage report that showed a larger than expected supply build of 82 bcf. Recent weather forecasts have been calling for warmer temperatures across the country which could limit the size of upcoming supply injections.

In recent weeks, we have been in a sideways trend in the June Natural Gas Market as the market decides on which direction it is headed next. The technical analysis in Natural Gas points to bearish in the near-term, making way for a potential swing trading opportunity.

In today's trading session, I will be looking to sell June Natural Gas futures at 4.660, or a breach of the 20 Day Moving Average. This breach would confirm the outside reversal in today’s trading session. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Natural Gas" →