Category: INO.com Contributors

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, September 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks edged 1 million barrels higher in August to 2.895 billion, 43 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to rise, on balance. The third quarter seasonal stock draw was over in July. Third-quarter stocks are projected to rise by 2 million, instead of the seasonal draw. And stocks are projected to rise by 6 million in the fourth quarter, ending the year at 2.911 billion barrels, 50 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 67 million barrels to end the year at 2.978 billion.

Oil

The EIA has confirmed that OPEC production edged higher (23,000 b/d) in August v. July. It is also estimating that OPEC production will average about 29.6 million in 2020, and that figure is about 400,000 b/d higher than OPEC’s August estimate of the call (demand) for OPEC oil in 2020. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, September 2019" →

Some Bond ETFs Are Having A Good Year

Posted on by Matt Thalman

With the Federal Reserve once again in an “interest rate-cutting” mood, some bond investors are making fantastic returns in 2019. Several bond ETFs are beating the S&P 500 year-to-date, despite the popular index increasing by more than 20% thus far in 2019.

Perhaps you are wondering how boring old bonds could be beating top growth and technology stocks in 2019?

Well, the answer is simple; when interest rates fall, long term bonds that have higher “nearly guaranteed” yields become more valuable. If current 10-year Treasury yields are around 1.75%, but you own an older 10-year Treasury bond that is yielding say 3.0%, investors who are looking for safe, reliable yields, will be willing to pay a nice premium for your older 10-year Treasury bond.

Funds such as the Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT), the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV), and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) are all increasing in value as interest rates decline. Year to date, these three ETFs are up 21.37%, 25.01%, and 18.36% respectively, all without using any sort of leverage.

The three bond ETFs mentioned above are all increasing in value while current interest rates fall. However, these three funds and many others like them will do the opposite when interest rates begin to climb higher. But, since the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are in rate-cutting mode, investors can reasonably expect rates to stay at their depressed states for some time, if not go even lower. Continue reading "Some Bond ETFs Are Having A Good Year" →

Bitcoin Dropped To The Target

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Many years ago, when I was fifteen, I was inspired to become a professional trader after I had read a magazine story about a so-called “whale, the large market player. He was moving the markets with large orders sent to his broker out of his luxury hotel room. Markets were panicking, and politicians were trying to soothe the public telling them “true” stories. But the truth is that the impulse of the price was generated first in the “whale’s” mind and then it reached the market through the skillful hands of his broker, no other reason, except his will. The concept behind his action is a real mystery, known solely by himself. He could use any kind of analysis to be successful. The remaining is just the “noise.”

We are not “whales,” and I am not fifteen anymore, but we can find market irregularities to turn it into a profit. Let politicians talk, media buzz and profit run.

The bitcoin structure has been developing prophetically accurate as per the plan, that I shared with you a month ago. The leading coin has dropped hard from what looked to be an unbreakable area at $10,000 to hit the most anticipated target of $7,800. The actual low was just a few dollars below it. Again, the majority of you have made the correct choice based on the chart structure I highlighted for you. Hopefully, our vision gets sharper over time.

This collapse extended the damage of the crypto to 43% from the top of $13,764 established in June. The media have naturally started the “noise,” but we were prepared for this move two months ago, and we are not going to buy their “truth” as they usually sell extremes of either doomsday or a tulip mania. None of this is going to happen soon. Some “whales” just pushed down the market reckoning old trading wisdom – “if they don’t buy then I sell.” That’s it. This is what I was telling you at the opening of this post. Continue reading "Bitcoin Dropped To The Target" →

AMC - Silver Lining of Movie Pass' Collapse

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) has had a difficult time breaking out of its stock slump, falling ~50% from its 52-week high of ~$20 per share. At these levels, the stock sports a hefty dividend yield of ~7.5% with a healthy balance sheet and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. AMC is pouncing on Movie Pass’ collapse and rolled out its own loyalty program that has exceeded the company’s growth expectations. AMC’s rapidly growing loyalty program now has over 900,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model to smooth out box office revenue fluctuations. This will allow durable and predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC is re-engaging the consumer via digital, mobile and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion augmented by a healthy share buyback program. The stock looks very attractive considering its depressed valuation, solid Q2 earnings and company initiatives to drive the consumer experience. The long-term growth narrative remains intact while revenue continues to grow at a healthy clip with a strong movie slate to round out 2019, notably Joker, Terminator: Dark Fate, Frozen 2, Jumanji: The Next Level and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Movie Pass’ Collapse and AMC’s A-List Subscriptions

Movie Pass is now history; however, the concept that the company brought to the market was the silver lining for AMC. AMC saw the overwhelming adoption by consumers and was forced to evolve by rolling out its own loyalty program via its A-List subscribers. AMC’s loyalty program now has over 850,000 subscribers which is expected to generate more than $150 million of annual recurring revenue. This will provide further penetration on the revenue front in excess of $300 million when factoring in food and beverage purchases and full-fare tickets purchased by bring-along guests such as family and friends. The loyalty program provides an opportunity to shift a segment of its business mix to a subscription-based model, providing durable and predictable revenue streams, mitigating box office fluctuations and driving long-term customer loyalty. Under this ticket subscription program, members can attend up to three movies per week in every available showtime and format. These membership numbers far exceed the company’s goal of 500,000 by mid-June 2019. Continue reading "AMC - Silver Lining of Movie Pass' Collapse" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the November contract is trading lower for the 4th consecutive session after settling last Friday in New York at 58.09 while currently trading at 55.55 down about $2.50 for the trading week as prices have now hit a 10-day low.

If you take a look at the daily chart, the price gap that was created on September 16th has been filled in today's trade, and if you have been following any of my previous blogs, you understand that I do not like price gaps as they generally are filled just like what has occurred in oil.

Crude is now trading below its 100-day moving average as I am currently not involved as the volatility is too high as I'm advising clients to avoid the entire energy sector at this time.

Oil prices are at major support as this market has been incredibly choppy over the last 5 months as fundamentally speaking the main reason for the depressed prices over the last week is due to resumption of Saudi crude capacity from the Sep 14th attacks on its oil installations after Saudi Aramco said Tuesday that its total crude production capacity now exceeds 11.0 million barrels per day which is a week ahead of schedule.

TREND: LOWER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →