Category: INO.com Contributors

Fed on the Brink of Dovishness?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


After fending off one blow from the SNB and another, albeit positive, surprise from the ECB, investors’ focus will, naturally, shift to next week when the Federal Reserve’s rate decision will take place. “What will Yellen say this time?” markets want to know. Can the Fed Chairman really stay hawkish while the rest of the world is plunging into a new cycle of easing? These questions have loomed over Fed meetings for a while now, especially as Oil prices plummeted and inflation expectations lowered. Yet to the surprise of many Fed watchers and investors, Janet Yellen, “the dove,” continued to press forward with a hawkish tone, giving an upbeat assessment on growth and stressing the Fed’s conviction that disinflation (low Continue reading "Fed on the Brink of Dovishness?" →

Thank you, Mario

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


I don’t know if Mario Draghi’s “historic” quantitative easing program announced Thursday will do anything to help the flat-on-its-back euro zone economy.

I’m not a trained economist, so I’m not sure exactly how buying massive quantities of already overpriced bonds is supposed to raise inflation and boost the economy, although it has been very successful in devaluing the grossly overpriced euro. But how is a cheaper currency going to help countries in the euro zone when they do most of their trading with each other?

What I am sure of is that the program will make U.S. Treasury and corporate debt securities a lot more attractive to investors, further lowering long-term interest rates here, and giving our economy, now the envy of the rest of the world, another boost.

It’s about time Europe did something for us. Continue reading "Thank you, Mario" →

Would you take a $100 bet that gas prices exceed $4 again in 2015?

Posted on by Adam Feik

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


If only one could know – in advance – when oil prices would bottom… right?

Well, on Fox Business Network’s Varney & Co. Wednesday morning, a well-known expert informed us he expects gas prices to exceed $4 per gallon again by the end of the year. That’s right; in 2015!!!

“Care to put your money where your mouth is on that?” the show’s host, Stuart Varney asked, in essence (I’m paraphrasing).

Would you take the bet? The guest, former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister did! Varney, of course, eagerly and confidently took the other side.

The $100 bet

Here’s a link to the video, if you’d like to watch these 2 aspiring futurists making a $100 bet. Oh, and you’ll be able to hear Hofmeister’s logic as well (summarized later in this article for your convenience).

Mr. Hofmeister must feel pretty secure in the deal he reached with Mr. Varney, since Hofmeister appeared on CNBC the day prior, predicting (sans bet) $5/gallon gas by 2020, saying the world will need 100 barrels of oil by that time, and that “we don’t know how to get there yet.” Continue reading "Would you take a $100 bet that gas prices exceed $4 again in 2015?" →

Gold Update: Total Recast

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Dear INO.com readers,

Today Gold hit the $1300 level and I updated my chart for Gold, as it was price trigger for my previous bearish scenario.

In my first article last December I charted the line graph for Gold with a descending triangle pattern detected on this metal. My projection for the mentioned pattern was bearish with quite bold target levels.

What is up today?

The main rule for success is to not to be biased and always challenge yourself with making a brand new analysis from time to time, and surely when market is not going your way.

Today I prepared an absolutely new Gold graph to put fresh eye on it, now with candlesticks.

Gold Chart, small and big wedge chart patterns.

This time I detected a very interesting chart pattern called the “wedge.” This type of patterns is outstanding as it has an ambiguous impact on the market with either a continued or reversed outcome. Luckily, we have two wedges on the same time frame at once. Both are the falling wedge type because of the descending highs and lows. The big one is highlighted in green and the small is in black. Apart from it, we have two more rare technical species on the chart. Continue reading "Gold Update: Total Recast" →

Chicken Little and the Bond Market

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


If you listen to some market observers, the record low yields in the Treasury bond market are warning us that the American economy is on the verge of falling into the same deflationary abyss of the euro zone and Japan. Like the Chicken Little story, if bond yields are falling, the sky must be falling, too.

With the yield on the 30-year T-bond hitting its lowest level ever last week, even lower than during the global financial crisis, they’re worried that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates soon, we’ll shortly be back to the bad old days of 2008 and, even worse, 1929.

No less a figure than Paul Krugman, the New York Times’ economics commentator, wrote that the Swiss Central Bank’s move last week to decouple the franc from the free-falling euro is a portent of what could happen to us if we let our deflationary guard down. Continue reading "Chicken Little and the Bond Market" →