Category: INO.com Contributors

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2021

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for June, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In May 2021, it estimated stocks rose by 4 million barrels to end at 2.901 billion, 298 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 95.02 million barrels per day (mmbd) for May, compared to global oil consumption of 96.22 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 1.20 mmb/d, or 37 million barrels for the month. Given the increase in OECD stocks, non-OECD stocks dropped by 41 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 149 million barrels to 2.877 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will build by 80 million barrels to end the year at 2.957 billion.

OECD Global Oil Inventories

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release June 1, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, June 2021" →

Gold & Silver: Fed Boosted The Dollar

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last Thursday, the dollar rallied, reaching a two-month high versus major currencies, a day after U.S. Federal Reserve shocked markets by projecting a hike in interest rates and an earlier end to emergency bond-buying.

Daily US Dollar Chart

The price broke above the black dotted trendline resistance, which does not look like a minor correction. Instead, I think this is an extension of a large retracement of the entire move down that started in March of 2020.

The market could build the second leg of this large consolidation marked with an orange color. I highlighted the last leg with a green zigzag to the upside. The current leg up could repeat the same two-movement structure, so I built the orange zigzag. The first move within a second leg up could be over. I expect the upcoming pullback to retest the broken trendline resistance. After that, the retracement could resume and hit the top of the first leg at 93.4. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Fed Boosted The Dollar" →

What Happened To The Commodity Markets?

Posted on by Mike Seery

The commodity markets were absolutely crushed Thursday afternoon, experiencing some extreme losses that I have not witnessed for quite some time. We saw -5% to -10% declines across the board. The Federal Reserve announced that they would start to raise interest rates next year as that sent the momentum to the downside as investors did not like to hear that information as higher rates are bearish commodity prices.

I have been trading these markets for around 30 years, and I have seen a sharp sell-off before as we may have gotten a little ahead of ourselves. However, I still believe you take advantage of massive sell-offs as the long-term secular bullish trends are still intact.

If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I try to risk around 2% of my account balance on any given trade, as this is an excellent theory. All you have to do is look at what happened over the last couple of days, especially in the metals and the grains, and if you do not follow that rule, you could lose a substantial amount quickly.

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.67 while currently trading at 16.76, down another 90 points continuing its bearish momentum as prices have now traded lower five out of the last six trading sessions. The commodity markets across the board are taking a beating this week because interest rates could rise in the coming year ahead. Continue reading "What Happened To The Commodity Markets?" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 6/20/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart- Stock Market Forecast

Although it wasn't precise enough to base a new position on, the historical tendency for a "dead and drifting market" to produce a big increase in volatility came true this time yet again.

As the market expands to the downside, there are two test points that I will be watching with great interest. The first is the trendline support which is relatively minor just above the $412 per share area. The second will be the area of support back near the recent lows. As these areas are tested, I will be taking measurements of the supply and demand forces at that time and will be in a better position to make an accurate forecast.

The forecasting tools that I use give me incredible amounts of clear and precise information about the supply and demand forces that are impacting the market right now. By taking measurements at specific intervals, I can forecast where those supply slash demand imbalances are likely to resolve. It's kind of like the process meteorologists use in order to predict the track of a hurricane. They look at the radar to see where the hurricane is and then look at how that picture changes over time in order to interpolate speed, velocity, and likely areas of landfall. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

The Truth Behind Mining Cryptocurrency

Posted on by Wayne Burritt

If you’re like most of us, when your first heard about cryptocurrencies, you heard about Bitcoin (BTC). And as you waded through the morass of information trying to get a handle on what Bitcoin really was, one of the first big obstacles you ran into was that BTC comes into existence by a process called “mining.”

I thought to myself, “you mean like gold?”

If that stumped you, you’re not alone. I know it did me.

In fact, as I began my cryptocurrency journey, the process of mining became one of the most fascinating – and tricky – concepts to get my head around. I really didn’t know what to believe.
Well, no worries.

In today’s installment, I’ll give you the truth behind mining cryptocurrency. I’ll break down the basics of cryptocurrency mining, what it’s about, how it’s done, and why people do it. And if I’ve done my job, you’ll get a good understanding without a bunch of technical jargon.

Now, if you’re looking for a starter kit on crypto, I recommend taking a look at a high-level explanation of cryptocurrency and why it’s such a big deal. You don’t need those to get a good understanding of what we’ll talk about today, but they may be able to fill in some holes.

First off, some housekeeping items. Continue reading "The Truth Behind Mining Cryptocurrency" →