Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 6/20/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart- Stock Market Forecast

Although it wasn't precise enough to base a new position on, the historical tendency for a "dead and drifting market" to produce a big increase in volatility came true this time yet again.

As the market expands to the downside, there are two test points that I will be watching with great interest. The first is the trendline support which is relatively minor just above the $412 per share area. The second will be the area of support back near the recent lows. As these areas are tested, I will be taking measurements of the supply and demand forces at that time and will be in a better position to make an accurate forecast.

The forecasting tools that I use give me incredible amounts of clear and precise information about the supply and demand forces that are impacting the market right now. By taking measurements at specific intervals, I can forecast where those supply slash demand imbalances are likely to resolve. It's kind of like the process meteorologists use in order to predict the track of a hurricane. They look at the radar to see where the hurricane is and then look at how that picture changes over time in order to interpolate speed, velocity, and likely areas of landfall. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Dollar Struggles, Gold Consolidates; Oil To Triple Digits?

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) finally entered the anticipated corrective phase as I called for it last month.

US Dollar Index

The confirmation came with the breakup of a gray resistance. The structure is not as sharp as I expected as the price is still below the Fibonacci retracement zone. All spikes are still around the initial breakout peak, around 90.5. Continue reading "Dollar Struggles, Gold Consolidates; Oil To Triple Digits?"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 6/13/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

It feels like a waste of time to even bother doing analysis on the S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) this week. This “dead and drifting” market behavior often precedes a big increase in volatility, and my forecasting tools continue to show that this bullish move up is unsponsored and likely to fail. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Gold's Inflation Utility

Gold is okay, but not yet unique

There are times when gold is an okay inflation hedge while under-performing the likes of industrial metals, oil/energy, materials, etc. During those times, if you’re doggedly precious metals focused you should consider silver, which, as a hybrid precious metal/industrial commodity, has more pro-cyclical inflation utility than gold.

But as I have argued for much of the last year, if the inflated situation is working toward cyclical progress (as it is currently) then there is a world full of trades and investments out there to choose from, many of which are trouncing gold (which, as I have belabored for the better part of 2 decades now, is not about price but instead, value) in the inflated price casino.

The latest ISM Report on Business shows one negative among the important areas as employment declined. Now, before we get too excited about that gold-positive reading let’s also realize that manufacturing employment is still growing, new orders are briskly increasing, backlogs are up and customer inventories are down. In short, manufacturing continues to boom.

ism report on business

But being inflation-fueled, the economic recovery also has a ‘prices’ problem… and a materials/supplies problem (unless you’re one of the 2 or 3 people out there with a deep desire to own Acetone. There are potential Stagflationary elements to this situation, which would come forward if the economy starts to struggle due to inflation and the economic pressures it is building. Continue reading "Gold's Inflation Utility"

Silver Favor Bulls; Bitcoin To Zero?

Let us start with the positive news; I spotted a hopeful sign in the silver chart. In my earlier update last month, I anticipated a correction to come in the dollar, gold, and silver charts.

Daily Silver Chart

The cleanest retracement among the assets mentioned above appeared in the silver chart as it met minimum requirements. Silver’s price broke below gray support, and the correction almost hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It consists of two distinct legs down marked with red numbers. Continue reading "Silver Favor Bulls; Bitcoin To Zero?"