Trump, Putin Pressure Saudis To Raise Oil Production

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Trump Putin Saudis Oil Production


About a month ago, President Trump tweeted:

"Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea. Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!"

When asked to comment on Trump's tweet, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC, "Markets should determine price."

Perhaps Trump later made the kind of call he talked about a decade ago. In 2008, President Trump was interviewed by Jim Cramer about OPEC. In this video (starting 5:38), Trump stated:

"The biggest problem I never hear anybody talk about. I told you about it once. Every time they lower interest rates, the cartel, because I call it a cartel-- the illegal monopoly-- raises oil prices. So the monopoly, because that's what it is, a total illegal monopoly. If businesses ever formed OPEC, everybody would be put in jail. Every time a country hits oil, they are invited into the cartel. It's a disgrace. Now you have oil prices that are going to be over $100, and nobody in this country calls and says. 'Get that goddamn oil price down. You get it down. And you get it down fast.'"

"And you can do it….In the old days, our presidents used to call. We don't call anymore….If spoken to properly, those prices would come down like you wouldn't believe."
Continue reading "Trump, Putin Pressure Saudis To Raise Oil Production"

Crude Oil Could Crash Again

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Oil Could Crash Again


It is interesting how often exaggerated expectations prove to be wrong in the market. Crude oil is the dominant fossil fuel energy source, and therefore it draws a lot of attention as well as speculation.

Looking back, I remember a conversation with my boss earlier in the year who had talked to a large oil producing company and they said that it is highly improbable for crude oil to get over $55 per barrel amid the supply glut. WTI crude almost hit the $73 level this month to break similar pessimistic forecasts that had persisted in the market last year. OPEC’s deal together with Middle East tensions has driven the oil price to a 3-year high benefiting oil producing countries.

But these days I have started to hear different highly optimistic forecasts calling for $80-100 per barrel. When these voices began to grow into a full choir, I began to expect the thunder as this “sweet unison” is the leading contrarian indicator. Continue reading "Crude Oil Could Crash Again"

Oil Market Risks For 2018: Upside Then Downside

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Oil Market Risks 2018


Fears of potential shortages from the implosion of Venezuela’s production, and the imposition of sanctions on Iran, have catapulted the Brent oil price marker to $80. However, there are great uncertainties about how much oil supplies will be disrupted over the balance of 2018, and what the supply response will be from OPEC and other producers, such as Russia and the United States.

Venezuela’s production fell by 45,000 b/d in April from March, averaging 1.47 million barrels per day. The April decline was equal to the average monthly drop thus far in 2018. Whether the rate of decline will increase, or stay the same, is unknown, but what is known is that oil workers have been leaving the country, unpaid.

The May 20th presidential election has been called a sham. And President Trump is considering sanctioning Venezuela's oil or prohibiting the crude to be sold in the U.S. If he does, Venezuela’s economy is expected to collapse because it is totally dependent on oil revenues. Continue reading "Oil Market Risks For 2018: Upside Then Downside"

US February Crude Production Shows Big Gain

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - US February Crude Production


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that February crude oil production averaged 10.264 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 260,000 b/d from January, setting a new all-time record for the U.S. The large increase reflected a gain from a level that was constrained by weather issues.

The largest increases were recorded in Texas (106,000 b/d), the Gulf of Mexico (89,000 b/d) and New Mexico (46,000 b/d).

US February Crude Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 26,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.290 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending April 20th was 10.586 mmbd. Continue reading "US February Crude Production Shows Big Gain"

2018 U.S. Gasoline Season Outlook

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - U.S. Gasoline


OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for April featured an article on the summer petroleum products market. It observed that the U.S. is typically the key driver for products markets in the run-up to the summer driving season, and indicators are pointing to a positive and optimistic outlook.

It cites year-over-year January combined gasoline and diesel growth of 845,000 b/d. It states that the weekly data in February and March further supported this positive trend. And it concludes U.S. gasoline and distillates demand will grow by around a combined 992,000 b/d in 2018.

But a closer examination of gasoline demand and consumption estimates provide a different picture. Also, the MOMR totally ignored the supply side of the market, and last summer’s Hurricane Harvey and Mexico’s refinery problems contributed to support that is unlikely to be repeated this summer. Continue reading "2018 U.S. Gasoline Season Outlook"