The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.
As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.
In short, the improving sector and macro fundamentals I’ve been writing about for a few months now continue to slam home as the cyclical world pivots counter-cyclical. And what do you know? Gold stocks are reacting as they should. Well, it’s about time, guys!
One year ago I shared with you the similar dynamics of the top gold stocks ranked by ROE. There were five tickers: ABX (Barrick Gold), SBGL (Sibanye Gold), IAG (IAMGOLD), GSS (Golden Star) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining). I want to update on their price dynamics to show you which of your bets played out after one year.
Before we get down to the results, below is the distribution of votes for each stock for you to recall those bets.
For the second time in a row, the majority of you bet on Barrick Gold (ABX) despite that this company was among the top losers a year ago. Another interesting fact is that the Golden Star (GSS) was the least favorite, although it had shown the best result last time. This is what we call mysterious investors’ sentiment.
Gold is under pressure after it couldn’t break above the previous major top and the gold stocks couldn’t escape the same fate. Last time I filtered the gold stocks by ROE and in this piece, I would like to make an update on their price performance for you.
To remind you, the top stock tickers are ABX (Barrick Gold), SBGL (Sibanye Gold), IAG (IAMGOLD), GSS (Golden Star) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining).
Chart 1. Top Gold Stocks Vs. Gold: The Brightest Star Is The Golden Star
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Gold topped on the 8th of September at the $1357 level, and that’s where I have started the chart. Gold (black) lost more than 4% from that peak. Three of the five stocks lost more in price than gold did: HMY (green) fell for more than 13%, your favorite (see chart #3) ABX (red) dropped almost 21%, and the worst performer is IAG (purple) with -21% drop, which was the top gainer in the previous update. Continue reading "Gold Stocks Are Under Pressure Except For One"→
Gold broke above both daily and monthly resistances, and we could witness a further strong move to the upside. In this post, I would like to find out if there are gold stocks with upside potential to follow the strengthening metal using my unique selection criteria.
When you buy stocks, you become shareholders of the company participating in the equity. That is why this time I decided to sort the gold stocks by ROE (return on equity) and chose the top 5 (in the table below) to analyze. The range includes stocks with a market cap over $300 million.
Table 1. Top Gold Stocks By Return-On-Equity (ROE)
Money manager Adrian Day reviews recent developments at a handful of gold companies, both juniors and seniors.
Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE,NY 62.58), already one of most diversified of royalty companies, is expecting further commodity diversification ahead, with CEO David Harquail saying the company will do more deals in non-precious metals, particularly oil and gas. The company's mandate allows for up to 20% of the portfolio outside precious metals—currently it's at 94% precious metals—and Harquail said he would like to get to that level soon. Franco currently has availability liquidity (cash and credit lines) over $1 billion.
The reason for the diversification is that the gold industry is essentially "ex-growth," according to Harquail, who says companies are investing in new projects to maintain production, but "none of these projects are really great."
Company Can Take Its Time
Harquail also noted that Franco does not need to be in a rush to invest. It has growth built in for the next five years from royalties on advanced-stage projects, while it could maintain its dividend for the next 32 years even if it did nothing else.
Franco is also appealing more and more as an investment to long-term conservative institutions, including generalist funds who want a small exposure to gold and resources without the extreme volatility from mining companies. Franco remains a foundational investment for us. If you don't own it, it's a good buy here. Continue reading "Gold Stocks for All Risk Appetites"→