Tag: technical analysis

The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change The Macro

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio is saying something. That something is that a cyclical, pro-inflation and thus pro-economic reflation metal shown earlier, remaining nominally positive on a down market day has, in relation to gold, taken out two important moving averages (daily SMA 50 & SMA 200) and is currently riding the short-term EMA 20 upward. RSI and MACD are positive.

Copper: Pro-cyclical inflation, pro-reflation, pro-economy.

Gold: Counter-cyclical, monetary, with inflationary utility.

Given the right circumstances (like desperate monetary and fiscal policy), which are in play on the wider macro, gold will probably do quite well moving forward. But maybe – for a while – not as well as some commodities if the Copper/Gold ratio really is up to something positive here.

copper/gold ratio

Side note: the Palladium/Gold ratio is on the verge of going positive as well and of course the daddy of inter-metal ratios, the Gold/Silver ratio is still on a big picture breakdown (Silver/Gold has broken above a key long-term resistance marker). So you might want to look at these three metallic indicators together (along with more traditional non-metallic inflation indicators) in gauging the process toward inflation. Continue reading "The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change The Macro" →

Precious Metals: Bullish Only

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The king currency and the precious metals move amazingly in line with the previous forecasts. As time goes by, we can see the path clearer these days, and therefore I kept only the one option for each instrument to emerge.

Let us start this post with the updated daily chart of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), aka "King," as it keeps a strong influence on the precious metals.

precious metals

The selling pressure remains relatively strong in the dollar index. The expected pullback transformed into a minor sideways consolidation. It was not deep, as it could not retest the resistance. The price already broke below the consolidation valley in 93.3, and the RSI indicator confirmed that move down sinking below the crucial 50 level. This was one reason to think that we should now expect only the bullish option in the precious metals. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Bullish Only" →

Will Gold Outshine Silver?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The collective mind of the Blog's readers has proved to be very powerful as the majority of you guessed it right last time, that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will reverse down. My assumption that precious metals will start to grow also played out accurately so far, and one could get the clue of DXY reversal from the assumption mentioned above.

In this update, I added minor annotations for fine-tuning previous charts as I switched to a lower time frame of 4-hour. The final chart below will show you the background for the title of this post. Let us start with the DXY 4-hour chart.

Dollar Index

The market indeed saw that orange trendline resistance as the price reversed right at that point. The RSI turned bearish now as it broke below the crucial level of 50. The indicator raises its head together with the price, which could throwback to retest the resistance. The former could briefly overthrow the crucial level, and then it should drop below it again to confirm the Dollar's further weakness. Continue reading "Will Gold Outshine Silver?" →

Chop & Grind: Gold, Stocks And Commodities

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Whether the market is foreign or domestic, equity, commodity, or metal the grind is on. Speaking of grind, the one in gold has been expected as the metal builds out its big picture Handle to the bullish Cup with an objective that is much higher. Let’s take a look at a few NFTRH charts to gauge the grind in several markets and by extension, the grind many feel on their nerves these days. It’s not a time to make money. It’s a time to preserve gains and patiently position.

For gold, the grind would be the making of a Handle after the Cup’s key higher high to the 2011 high.

gold price

The daily chart below shows the form it is taking; a falling wedge toward the first support area just above 1800. If the monthly chart above is to make a substantial Handle the gold price correction could extend to a test of the rising 200-day average. RSI and MACD are negative.

Easy now, it’s not a prediction, but don’t let the perma-pompoms tell you it is not doable. Let’s keep it muted ladies. Continue reading "Chop & Grind: Gold, Stocks And Commodities" →

Gold & Silver: The King Reins In

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Almost all targets, which were set in the previous post, were reached last week except for the gold. I think the central banks bought the dip of the gold price, as the silver was lack of such strong support.

The majority of readers guessed it right as the US dollar index (DXY), aka “The King,” exceeded the target and reached the trendline resistance that I have mentioned at the beginning of the month. It is time for updates, and “The King” will open the series of charts.

The DXY daily chart is the first.

Gold Silver

It is interesting to see how from time to time, the market catches traders in a “make it or break it” situation right at the end of the trading week, keeping their heads spinning with almost paranoiac thoughts – “I should keep the profitable position Vs. I should book the profit”. It is even worse this time as usually Friday is the “book the profit and relax” day, but the price just stalled on the trendline resistance; hence not much of the selling to cover was there. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: The King Reins In" →