Tariffs Inducing Market Headwinds and Risks

For traders and investors, the political climate has been unlike anything we have ever seen in recent times!

There are plenty of opportunities if you know where to look. I will help to bridge the gap between Washington and Wall Street, finding you the best stock plays being driven by politics.

  • Trump has been in a back and forth tariff battle with the Chinese for months and now has indicated that the EU may be subject to tariffs
  • This is creating a tit for tat trade war between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China
  • As these trade war exchanges between the U.S. and China, in particular, unfold, world markets have experienced increased volatility
  • Multinational companies are starting to voice concern that these trade fears are becoming the most significant risk to their respective businesses
  • Multinationals just as 3M (MMM), DowDuPont (DWDP), United Technologies (UTX), General Electric (GE), Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT) have been under weakness as the tough trade rhetoric continues

Trade War Rhetoric Heats Up

Reports indicated that the Trump administration planned to block many Chinese companies from investing in domestic technology and block additional technology exports to China. It was reported that the administration was drafting rules that would apply to companies with at least 25% Chinese ownership from buying companies involved in "significant industrial technology." Despite these reports, Peter Navarro, a top trade advisor, said the market was overreacting to fears the administration would restrict foreign investment as part of its trade actions against China and other countries. "There are no plans to impose investment restrictions on any countries that are interfering in any way with our country. This is not the plan," he said. He insisted that markets were taking the wrong message from the reports, stating, "I would say more broadly I think today's market reaction is a very large overreaction," Navarro said. "What we have here with Trump trade policy is a tremendous success for this country and this market. It's very bullish." Going further, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated that all of President Trump’s advisors were unanimous on the Chinese investment restrictions and that any mixed messages were unfortunate. Hence, part of the uncertainty that corporations and foreign governments are voicing concern. Continue reading "Tariffs Inducing Market Headwinds and Risks"

Hoist by Their Own Petard

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau


I certainly don’t agree with Mick Mulvaney’s purported efforts – if true— to emasculate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but I am thoroughly enjoying the consternation he’s putting his enemies through – although probably not nearly as much as he probably is. The blatant hypocrisy they’re displaying as they fall over themselves with their fake outrage has been fun to watch.

In case you haven’t been following the story, Mulvaney – who also heads the White House Office and Management and Budget – has been running the CFPB on an interim basis ever since his predecessor, Richard Cordray, resigned from the agency the Friday after Thanksgiving last year so he could run for governor of Ohio. On his way out the door, when he thought no one was looking, Cordray appointed his second-in-command, chief of staff Leandra English, to succeed him, a move that was thrown out by a federal judge. At the same time, President Trump appointed Mulvaney – a very vocal opponent of the agency – to run the CFPB until a permanent replacement is named and seated. Continue reading "Hoist by Their Own Petard"

IBM – Blockchain Technology Becoming Ubiquitous

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech - Blockchain Technology


“What the internet did for communications, blockchain will do for trusted transactions.”
— Ginni Rometty, IBM Chief Executive Officer

Introduction

I introduced International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) as a play on the emerging blockchain technology segment earlier this year to augment its transition away from its dependency on legacy businesses to the future of cloud, artificial intelligence, and analytics. IBM has struggled to restore growth, posting 20+ consecutive quarters of declining revenue however IBM has posted back-to-back quarters of revenue growth as of late. This growth has come on heels of its long-term imperatives beginning to bear fruit in emerging high-value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. A new frontier of growth lies in the nascent blockchain technology as IBM is a first mover in this promising, emerging technology. As IBM transitions to quarterly revenue growth, in the backdrop of its evolution to emerging high-value segments (i.e., blockchain) the company presents a compelling investment opportunity considering its suppressed valuation. In addition to the evolving business mix in strategic imperatives, IBM offers a great dividend, share buyback program while continuously acquiring companies to drive the business into the future. Continue reading "IBM – Blockchain Technology Becoming Ubiquitous"

Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Canadian Dollar


At the end of last month, I called for a substantial upcoming weakness in crude oil as the market could have finished the long-lasting consolidation after the earlier crash from 100+ levels. Indeed, oil lost almost $4 from that time and now is rebounding as markets naturally move in zigzags.

Oil-related currencies also suffer, and in this post, I would like to share with you an exciting chart setup with tremendous profit potential for one of such currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also known as “Loonie” among traders.

Before that, I built a chart to demonstrate the correlation between WTI crude oil and the Canadian Dollar.

Chart 1. WTI futures Vs. Canadian dollar futures: Perfect Correlation

Canadian Dollar
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In the chart above the WTI futures graph is black on the right scale and the Canadian Dollar futures graph (in US$ per 1 CAD) is red on the left scale. I didn’t add any annotations on the chart as you can clearly see that the correlation is just perfect and the most important fact is that the crucial market phases like strong moves and consolidations coincide in time. The Canadian Dollar tends to overshoot WTI amid market strength, but it is quite moderate during market weakness. Continue reading "Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar"

Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Oil Outlook


The Energy Information Administration updated its global supply/demand oil outlook for June. It shows total OECD oil inventories rising through November, ending the year about where they were last December.

Oil Outlook

This is in contrast to the rapid decline in stocks over the second half of 2017, and that enabled oil prices to rise. If this forecast is realized, it should have a moderating impact on prices, taking away some of the risk premium embedded in futures prices.

The stock projections are based on a number of assumptions: Continue reading "Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook"