Category: INO.com Contributors

Investing In The Guns And Ammo Boom

Posted on by Matt Thalman

If you thought lumber prices were high in 2021 or that the US housing market was hot, you might be missing the hottest market and the industry that is seeing the highest price increases; the gun and ammunition industry. In 2020 the US saw record levels of gun purchases halfway through 2021, and there is no slowing down.

In 2020, more than 21 million guns were sold in the US; that’s more than double the number of guns sold 20 years ago. And according to the FBI background checks done thus far in 2021, we are likely to see more than 21 million guns sold this year.

With that many guns being sold, it's not hard to see why ammunition is not only in short supply but why prices are up more than 100% when compared to just two years ago. However, despite ammunition prices rising, some people being interviewed say they would buy more if they could get it. Some gun owners have said it's not uncommon to own thousands of rounds for each different type of gun they own.

So, when you add the two factors together, 21 million new guns sold in 2020, and we are well on our way to see close to, if not more than that, sold in 2021, and of course you need bullets for these millions of guns being sold, maybe not thousands, but at least some. Well then, it makes perfect sense why ammunition is in low supply, high demand, and prices are soaring.
As an investor, how can you benefit from this gun-crazy situation? Continue reading "Investing In The Guns And Ammo Boom" →

Market Jitters And The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have become a top topic as of late and have directly impacted market movements and overall sentiment. These CPI reports are becoming more significant as these readings are used to identify periods of inflation. More robust the CPI readings will translate into a stronger influence on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies. The Federal Reserve is reaching an inflection point where they will need to curtail their stimulative easy monetary as inflation, unemployment, and overall economy continue to improve. As a result, their long-term monetary policy of low-interest rates and bond purchases will inevitably need to pivot to a scenario of higher rates to tame inflation. As a result, investors can expect increased volatility as these critically important CPI reports continue to be released through the remainder of 2021. Additionally, any notion of higher rates may spur investors to reduce exposure to equities.

CPI Market Jitters

Recent CPI readings have spooked the markets as these serve as a harbinger for the inevitable rise in interest rates. As investors grapple with the prospect of downstream rate increases, pockets of vulnerabilities throughout the market have been exposed. The overall markets have been on a blistering bull run since the November 2020 presidential election cycle. The overall markets as assessed by any historical measure have reached stretched valuations with record risk appetite. As real inflation enters the fray, these frothy markets will come under pressure and possibly derail this raging bull market. Moreover, the prospect of rising rates may introduce some systemic risk in the process. The confluence of rising rates, a hot housing market, and robust CPI readings may translate into real inflation rates that exceed the Federal Reserve’s target inflation zone. If these real inflation excursions drag on, these higher rates will be in the fold. Continue reading "Market Jitters And The Consumer Price Index (CPI)" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2021

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.207 billion in July 2020. In June 2021, it estimated stocks fell by 12 million barrels to end at 2.864 billion, 337 million barrels lower than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 96.75 million barrels per day (mmbd) for June, compared to global oil consumption of 97.90 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 1.15 mmb/d, or 34 million barrels for the month. Given the decrease in OECD stocks, non-OECD stocks are implied to have increased by 20 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 194 million barrels to 2.832 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will build by 76 million barrels to end the year at 2.908 billion.

OECD Global Oil Inventories

The EIA forecast does not incorporate the OPEC+ plan to increase production by 400,000 b/d each month from August to December. The plan was not formally put into place because of an objection by the UAE to obtain a higher quota. All OPEC decisions must be unanimous. However, UAE's energy ministry said on July 14th that there had been significant progress in resolving its standoff with OPEC+ and that a compromise deal is being discussed that will raise the UAE's crude production quota to 3.65 million bpd from about 3.17 mmbd currently.

The current “reference production” and adjustments levels are detailed in the table below. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, July 2021" →

Platinum And Silver Update

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

One of our regular readers kindly requested the update of Platinum chart. Here we go as promised.

The global outlook for platinum posted in 2019 remains unchanged and you could see that big chart at this link. The previous update was this February as I used the cloning technique to visualize the current second leg up. Platinum futures prices did not follow it, therefore, below is the updated chart.

Weekly Platinum Chart

The leg 2 up had started with a two-leg zigzag up labeled as a blue AB part. It looks symmetric as both legs are almost equal and have the same trajectory. Then we can clearly distinguish the BC consolidation part, which consists of two legs down (red zigzag). It pierced the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to hit the valley of $1022. The RSI dropped slightly below the crucial 50 level. Continue reading "Platinum And Silver Update" →

What You Don't Know About Altcoins

Posted on by Wayne Burritt

What are Altcoins?

First off, the term altcoin is a portmanteau of two words, “alternative” and “coins.”

But don’t let that throw you: Alternative is the keyword here.

Alternative to what? Well, you guessed it: Bitcoin.

That’s right: Altcoins are all cryptocurrencies, except Bitcoin.

But that answer just gets us started.

So, let’s get to it! Continue reading "What You Don't Know About Altcoins" →